Inadequate Foundational Decoding Skills Hinder Literacy Goals in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Learning to read is foundational for educational success and human capital development. However, approximately 57% of children in LMICs cannot read with basic comprehension by age 10, despite substantial global education investments and increased primary school enrollments. Existing research often focuses on systemic issues, but this study investigates the problem through the lens of reading science, highlighting the critical role of lower-level reading subskills, particularly decoding.

Mastery of decoding skills, such as understanding letter-to-sound mappings, is essential for accessing vocabulary and building reading proficiency. High-income countries often integrate systematic phonics and early decoding assessments like DIBELS into their curricula. In contrast, the Global Proficiency Framework for LMICs primarily focuses on comprehension, with little emphasis or explicit mention of phonics and decoding assessments, leading to a significant gap in evaluating these foundational skills.

This study aggregates data from over half a million pupils across 48 LMICs using the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA), which assesses foundational reading skills comparable to DIBELS. The analysis focused on four decoding tasks: letter name identification, letter sound identification, non-word reading, and oral reading fluency. Results show strikingly poor performance across all measures, with most subskill scores falling below substantial and severe risk benchmarks. Performance gaps widen with each instructional year, indicating that students are not on a trajectory to become proficient readers.

The study found a strong, positive correlation between the four decoding tasks and reading comprehension. This reinforces the psychological research indicating that fluent decoding is critical for comprehension. When struggling with decoding, pupils cannot effectively understand multi-word phrases or sentences, hindering their ability to engage with text at even the most basic levels. The observed learning gains, while showing medium to large effect sizes, were often small in absolute terms, meaning students remained far below necessary benchmarks for proficient reading.

The study acknowledged limitations, such as using US (English language) DIBELS benchmarks and the varied administration of EGRA surveys. However, sensitivity analyses supported the general conclusions, including for English-speaking contexts and in multilingual environments. The findings highlight a major public policy failure where educational systems in LMICs are not effectively developing foundational decoding skills. The authors call for a shift in policy to prioritize rigorous systematic phonics programs and regular, appropriate assessments of decoding ability in the early instructional years to ensure children become fluent decoders.