They Are Not Serious About This Ceasefire - Prof. Jiang Xueqin

A two-week ceasefire has been announced between the United States and Iran, with negotiations scheduled in Pakistan. Donald Trump stated that the 10-point Iranian plan would serve as a framework for a peace treaty. This plan includes the US guaranteeing never to attack Iran, Iran having complete control over the 'Humus', Iran enriching uranium for its nuclear program, removal of all sanctions, reparations for damages, withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East, and an end to hostilities against Iran's proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthies. The speaker interprets this as a near-complete US surrender, suggesting a lack of seriousness from the US side.

The speaker expresses strong skepticism about the ceasefire's sincerity, comparing the proposed deal to an absurd negotiation where an offer far exceeding expectations is immediately accepted. Evidence like the continued deployment of US aircraft carriers (USS George Bush) to the Middle East, despite the ceasefire, suggests the US might be buying time to prepare for an attack or seize strategic locations. A potential false flag operation by Israel to justify a US attack against Iran is also considered.

Iran's 'Mosaaic defense' strategy, where 31 provinces act as independent fighting units without a centralized command, poses a significant challenge to any ceasefire agreement. Even if Iran's leadership negotiates a deal, the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard Corps) fighters, who distrust the US and Israel, are unlikely to comply. This decentralized structure makes it nearly impossible for Iran to enforce a ceasefire internally without risking civil war, implying the conflict will likely continue until either side is decisively defeated.

Despite the ceasefire, the US continues to transport significant ground troops, planes, artillery, and tanks to the Middle East. The speaker suggests that both the US and Iranian political systems may have lost control over the ongoing warfare, with military forces determined to fight to the end. This indicates a growing schism between Iran's political and military leadership, which could weaken Iran's position as the war progresses, potentially leading to its decline against a more coherent US-Israeli strategy.

The prolonged war is expected to severely impact the global economy, leading to potential starvation and turning global opinion against Iran, even from its allies like Russia and China. However, due to its 'Mosaaic defense' structure, Iran cannot end the war without either destroying or being destroyed by the Americans. The ceasefire is therefore seen as a mere 'PR stunt' that will lead to no genuine peace.

A major point of contention is whether Lebanon and Iran's proxies, specifically Hezbollah, are part of the peace treaty. Following the ceasefire announcement, Israel launched over 100 strikes in Lebanon, killing at least 250 people. While Iran feels morally obligated to defend Hezbollah, the US claims Lebanon was not part of the deal, attributing the discrepancy to a 'legitimate misunderstanding'. This suggests that the US and Israel are not serious about maintaining the ceasefire and have already found loopholes to justify continued aggression.