What's happening in Syria, mapped

The video opens by announcing the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Hafez al-Assad ruled with an iron fist from 1971, succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad, who endured a civil war using brutal tactics. Just eleven days prior, rebels launched a surprise attack in Aleppo, quickly advancing to Hama, Homs, and eventually Damascus, leading to Assad's flight to Moscow. This marks a historic moment for Syrians who have suffered decades of oppression and millions displaced as refugees, but the country's future remains uncertain.

The Syrian Civil War began in 2011 but became a 'frozen conflict' by 2020, with five main groups. Assad's government largely controlled the country, but he was heavily reliant on Iran and Russia. Iran provided militias like Hezbollah, and Russia conducted airstrikes and maintained military bases. In 2023, Hamas's attack on Israel, an Iranian-backed militia, led to Israeli retaliation against Iranian assets in Syria and Iran itself, weakening Iran's ability to protect Assad. Russia was also distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, leaving Assad vulnerable. This created an opportunity for rebels to advance, and without support, Assad's army disintegrated, leading to his escape.

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, leader of Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), led the rebel uprising and is now in a prime position to take power. Jolani initially helped form Jabjat Al-Nusra, an extremist Islamist group allied with Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Later, he formed new groups, claiming they were not connected to Al-Qaeda, and then merged to create HTS. While HTS portrays itself as an independent entity focused on rebuilding Syria and protecting minorities, the US still considers it a foreign terrorist organization with ties to Al-Qaeda.

Even if Jolani controls Damascus, unifying Syria will be challenging. Other rebel groups, like the Syrian National Army (aligned with Turkey or seeking an Islamic state), have different ideologies. Kurdish-led groups in the north, who suffered under Assad, will not easily give up their autonomy. Alawites, Assad's sect, may resist rebel rule. ISIS could exploit the chaos to regain strength. While some elements of Assad's regime, like his former prime minister, are open to working with rebels, internal divisions remain a significant hurdle.

External powers will also heavily influence Syria's future. Turkey gains the most from Assad's downfall, hoping to send back Syrian refugees and use its backed militias to attack Kurdish groups it deems terrorists. Iran, however, loses a key ally and a buffer with Israel, also impacting its connection to Hezbollah. Other countries, like Israel, are cautious. While Israel opposed Assad, it does not want a more hostile Islamist regime. Arab states are also wary of inspiring revolts in their own countries. Russia has lost a key Middle East ally and its military bases in Syria are at risk. The United States maintains a base for fighting ISIS, with President Biden outlining support, though former President Trump advocates for non-intervention. The future of Syria is complex, requiring immense challenges for peaceful coordination between diverse groups and foreign powers.