Summary
Highlights
Valery Solovey introduces the 250th episode of his program, apologizing for a delay due to a court appearance where he was fined as a 'foreign agent.' He asks for financial support from viewers to help cover the fine and then shifts to a lighter note, asking viewers about their favorite World Cup teams.
Solovey's main topic is the change in the strategic context, specifically the peace deal expected to be concluded between the United States and Iran. He notes that while an official text isn't available, key elements suggest the Iranian regime has survived, and the deal does not mention Iran's missile program, which was a major point of contention.
The US-Iran deal is seen as a compromise, a characteristic Solovey expects for future Russia-Ukraine negotiations. He argues this compromise indicates an irreversible shift in the global order, where the US's claim to world leadership is challenged, and Russia has failed to restore its global standing. This points towards a new global balance that was predicted decades ago.
For Ukraine, the good news is that global attention, particularly from Europe and the G7, is shifting back to the conflict. For Russia, the deal is bad news as it will likely lead to lower oil prices and increased European sanctions on Russian energy, impacting Russia's export capabilities.
Solovey states that the front line remains in a strategic stalemate, with no clear advantage for either side. However, Russia's internal situation is deteriorating, with risks of Crimea's isolation and a growing fuel deficit due to Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. This deficit is causing serious concern within the Russian government.
The changing strategic context and front-line stalemate present two options. The first is negotiations, though current conditions don't favor their success as Kremlin expects new proposals while Ukraine's allies offer terms unacceptable to Russia. The second is a sharp escalation of military actions, which is already partially underway.
Both Russia and Ukraine face a deficit of manpower. Solovey highlights that the Kremlin is at a critical juncture, needing to decide between pursuing peace despite unfavorable terms or escalating the conflict. He mentions a 'Plan B' involving mobilization and economic restructuring, citing the difficulties faced by figures like Elvira Nabiullina regarding this. The decision window is limited to the summer and early autumn.
Solovey alludes to a critical decision expected soon, which will be discussed in an upcoming online meeting on July 9th. He encourages viewers to submit questions for a Q&A session and reiterates his earlier request for support and input on World Cup preferences, concluding with a message of hope for ultimate victory.