Summary
Highlights
The video starts by emphasizing that building generational wealth often requires holding stocks for a long time, citing Apple's significant returns over a decade as an example. The host introduces the concept of 'time in the market beating timing the market' and hints at discussing quantum computing stocks, including a detailed technical analysis of one specific stock and his favorite long-term pick.
The host addresses previous comments on his Tesla earnings analysis, explaining that his predictions about downside triggers and price targets (440, 424, 411) were accurate. He clarifies why he didn't recommend buying puts due to high implied volatility (IV) and reaffirms his long-term bullish stance on Tesla, anticipating it reaching over $500 by 2026 driven by Robo-taxis and Optimus. He then briefly touches on the SPY, suggesting that dips this week are buying opportunities, as the market awaits big tech earnings next week.
A significant news story breaks about the Trump administration being in talks to acquire equity stakes in quantum computing firms like OQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum in exchange for federal funding. This news initially caused these stocks to surge, as short sellers panicked and closed their positions. However, the host warns that despite this good news, these stocks have been falling recently and are still in a bearish trend, indicating that the news wasn't enough to sustain their upward movement.
The host outlines a strategy for picking stocks to hold for a decade, categorizing them into three groups: 'Clear Market Leaders' (e.g., Hood, Palantir, Oracle), 'Next-Gen Leaders' (e.g., APLD, HIMS), and 'Future Speculative Leaders' (e.g., Oakllo, BMNR, MP, QBTS). He stresses that investors shouldn't put all their long-term picks in the speculative category and that many of these stocks have the potential for massive growth, similar to past success stories like Apple and Google.
The video dives into a technical analysis of Rigetti Computing (RGTI), identifying a clear head and shoulders pattern and a bearish outlook. The host predicts a pullback to the $31 support level and potentially even $19 in a bearish macro environment. He explains that while a close above $44 could signal a bullish reversal, the current fundamentals suggest a downward trend. He provides key price levels for both conservative and high-risk traders, noting that the rally on the government funding news was a 'sell the rip moment.'
The host presents a strong bearish case for quantum computing stocks, particularly RGTI. He highlights its extremely high price-to-book ratio (27.2x vs. industry average of 5.1x), suggesting it's 98% overvalued according to Alpha Spread. He points out large negative net margins (-2000%) and significant operating losses ($77 million against $9.21 million in revenue), making them unsustainable without external funding. He cautions that the $10 million in potential government funding would be insufficient to sustain these companies long-term, attributing their recent surges to hype and short squeezes rather than strong fundamentals.
Amidst the bleak outlook for many quantum computing startups, the host reveals his favorite long-term quantum computing stock: Google (GOOGL). He argues that Google is the perfect company to invest in for quantum computing due to its deep pockets for R&D, its ability to successfully implement new technologies, and its proven track record of profitability. He suggests that while other quantum stocks are suitable for swing trades, Google provides long-term exposure to the quantum computing space with significantly less risk.
The host provides a final update on Tesla's chart, showcasing a successful A+ trade setup that resulted in significant gains. He invites viewers to join his community at www.stockswithjosh.com to learn about his technical analysis and participate in live trading sessions.