Summary
Highlights
The Northern Triangle crisis involves Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, starting around 2014, with roots in civil wars from the 1970s. This crisis has resulted in 320,000 internally displaced people, 104,200 refugees, and 90,500 asylum seekers, primarily due to climate change, violence, and poverty. Incarceration campaigns in 2022 to reduce crime led to human rights abuses. US involvement during the Cold War and the deportation of criminals between 1996 and 2002 fueled gang violence and instability.
Political corruption, including government officials collaborating with criminal organizations and manipulating the judicial system, is a major catalyst for displacement. Allegations of electoral coups in Honduras and controversial educational policies in El Salvador intensify political tensions and human rights concerns.
Gang violence is a significant driving factor, with gangs imposing their own laws in the Northern Triangle, disrupting society, and straining local economies. Mass shootings lead to school closures, making young boys vulnerable to recruitment and girls susceptible to abuse and extortion. Weak institutions and deep-rooted corruption limit the government's ability to protect citizens.
Violence, including sexual violence, harassment, extradition, and high homicide rates (e.g., 31 per 100,000 in Honduras), is a major social issue. Women and youth are particularly vulnerable targets. Military protection for citizens highlights the severity of the violence, primarily driven by gang activity and planned crimes.
Climate change, leading to floods, tropical storms, and droughts, significantly contributes to the crisis. Approximately 100,000 people annually in the Northern Triangle countries die due to natural disasters. Extreme weather events destroy homes, land, and crops, forcing mass migration and increasing the urgency to address the crisis.
In 2023, large migration flows continued, with 320,000 displaced and tens of thousands becoming refugees due to gangs, economic hardships, poverty, and corruption. Belize agreed to host migrants and asylum seekers from the US, sparking concerns about the safety of those deported. The US Supreme Court's decision allowing deportations without assessing risks further complicates the situation for migrants without a safe home.
In June 2025, the US signed agreements with Guatemala and Honduras for them to potentially offer refugee to asylum seekers meant for the US. This expands on Trump-era efforts to return migrants to third countries. While described as offering other options, this agreement makes it harder for Central Americans to seek asylum in the US, affecting many trying to escape dangerous lives.
Jose de Aguin Lopez's story illustrates the hardships faced by migrants. He escaped El Salvador's civil war in 1980, lived in California, and returned to El Salvador but faced financial struggles. During a second attempt to travel north in 2003 via freight train, he fell, losing a leg and sustaining severe injuries. After deportation, he eventually sought residency in Mexico in 2019, at 53, with two daughters, where he was granted protection.