Summary
Highlights
Donald Trump faces a difficult situation in the ongoing conflict in Iran, as he cannot admit mistakes. He announced on Truth Social that the US would hold off on a scheduled attack, attributing it to requests from Gulf leaders. Johnston notes Trump is 'flailing around' and undertaken a 'ridiculously stupid adventure.' He suggests that military planners would have advised against such actions. Trump, having annoyed American allies, lacks a 'coalition of the willing' to support military action, unlike past conflicts.
China has strategically built up significant oil reserves, four times those of the US, and is not inclined to give the US control over the Strait of Hormuz. Johnston highlights the long-term thinking of President Xi compared to Trump's short-term focus. He also mentions Trump's perceived 'pathetic' behavior during meetings with Xi, where he reportedly fell asleep.
Johnston believes Trump is trying to find a way out of the 'debacle' due to the damage it's causing to his political base. He points out that the war was initiated at Israel's request, without the involvement of key Arab nations, and Trump's expectation of their participation demonstrates his lack of understanding of the region's dynamics. Jared Kushner's financial dealings with Saudi Arabia are also brought up as a potential 'bribe' to keep Trump's family aligned with Saudi interests. Johnston dismisses Trump's claims regarding Gulf leaders influencing his decision, stating that Trump often fabricates information.
While acknowledging that truth is often a casualty in war, Johnston argues that the Iranian regime's statements have been more consistent than Trump's. He discusses reports that the Pentagon was concerned about Iran's increasingly effective air defenses. The US has depleted its expensive missile supplies (Patriot and Tomahawk missiles costing millions) to intercept much cheaper Iranian drones, a situation that will take years to rectify. Johnston reiterates that an air campaign alone cannot overthrow a regime, as historical evidence suggests bombing can strengthen resolve.
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk of global recession, mass starvation due to lack of fertilizer, and medical supply shortages due to a lack of helium for MRI machines. Johnston emphasizes that Iran appears to be in control of the situation and has planned extensively, unlike Trump. He notes that the war is unpopular in the US, with only one in four Americans supporting it.
Trump's ego prevents him from admitting defeat, making it difficult for him to withdraw from the conflict. Johnston recalls that Iran had previously offered a comprehensive deal, including allowing American oil companies to operate, which Trump seemingly ignored before initiating strikes. This suggests a missed opportunity for Trump to claim a 'better deal' than his predecessor. Johnston predicts a continued stalemate in the region.
The discussion shifts to the most expensive House of Representative primary in US history in Kentucky, where Thomas Massie is challenging Trump-backed Ed Gallery. This primary is significant because Trump has a high success rate in Republican primaries. Massie, described as a principled libertarian conservative, has been vocal about holding Trump accountable on issues like the Epstein files. Johnston notes the Republican leadership's abandonment of their oversight duties in deference to Trump. A Massie victory would be a significant pushback against Trump's influence.
Johnston highlights the general lack of awareness among American voters regarding their congressional representatives. Despite Massie's long tenure, his race is a crucial 'bellwether' for Trump's hold on the MAGA base, especially with the influx of millions of dollars in campaign spending. Trump's desire to remove Massie is likely linked to Massie's independent stance and his involvement in the Epstein files, which contain potentially damaging information for Trump.
Johnston states that Trump demands absolute loyalty, labeling any disagreement as disloyalty. He cites the inappropriate involvement of the Secretary of Defense in a campaign as an example of the Trump administration disregarding norms. He also warns that individuals following Trump's orders should be cautious, as there may be future prosecutions, even if Trump himself is immune due to Supreme Court rulings.