Summary
Highlights
Russia struggles with foreign policy expertise regarding the post-Soviet space, viewing former republics as 'foreign countries' despite their shared history. According to Ruslan Greenberg of the Institute of Economics, these states primarily seek maximum economic advantage from Russia with minimal political obligations. The Soviet Union's infrastructure was centralized in Moscow, creating lasting dependencies. The swift dissolution in 1991 meant 25 million Russians suddenly found themselves in new countries, leading to Putin's assessment of it as a 'geopolitical catastrophe'.
Thirty years after the Soviet Union's collapse, Moscow showcases a modern, confident Russia with gleaming new business districts, yet the red star still glimmers above the Kremlin, and Lenin lies in Red Square. President Vladimir Putin leads a vast country where Soviet symbols remain powerful, reflecting a complex legacy. The dissolution of the Soviet empire in 1991, an unprecedented historical event, left 15 new states grappling for their place in the world, all defined by their relationship with Russia.
Armenia, the smallest former Soviet republic, is a testament to ongoing conflict. The decades-long war for Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan, rooted in Soviet times, continues to claim lives. Armenian soldiers and civilians like Arvid Avenisyan and his son Gevorg face a remote prospect of peace. Russian peacekeepers monitor a fragile ceasefire, highlighting Russia's complex role, balancing relations with both Armenia and oil-rich Azerbaijan. The conflict, largely unnoticed globally, underscores the enduring instability in the region.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was an attempt to rebuild ties after the Soviet collapse, but with several countries opting out, it mostly exists on paper, lacking practical political significance. In contrast, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) forged their own path towards Western Europe. Lithuania, for example, has seen significant economic growth and joined NATO and the EU, reflecting a deep mistrust of Russia and a commitment to preventing history from repeating itself, despite facing challenges like emigration and a significant Russian minority.
Russia under Putin emphasizes military strength through maneuvers and parades, projecting an image of a fortress under siege. This aligns with an imperial mindset, drawing on the victory of the Red Army in World War II. While military careers are again desirable and defense spending is high, critics like Gerhart Mangott argue Russia's superpower status is purely military, lacking economic, financial, technological, or demographic strength. This focus on military might comes at the cost of vital infrastructure development and economic innovation.
Russia's economic growth is slow, driven mainly by commodity prices, with little investment in innovation or infrastructure outside of Moscow. This has led Russia to seek strong partners, particularly China, collaborating on projects like the new Silk Road to secure its traditional sphere of influence in Central Asia. China, cautious of Russia's potential shift to the West, maintains an alliance to prevent this, making Russia a de facto junior partner economically.
Ukraine, once poised for independence, is now in crisis, marred by corruption and deep divisions. Western Ukraine favors NATO and the EU, while the East, particularly Donbass, maintains strong ties to Russia. A pro-Russian separatist uprising in Donbass, fueled by fears of discrimination and backed by Russia, escalated into civil war. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, constructing a bridge to the mainland, sending a clear message of strength and demonstrating consequences for former Soviet states that turn against Russia. This act, seen as a breach of international law by the West, is viewed as a popular mandate by Russians, fostering a new patriotism.
The abrupt transition from socialism to capitalism in Russia, marked by 'shock therapy' and chaotic privatization, led to economic crisis, ruble devaluation, and widespread corruption in the 1990s. This experience discredited democracy for many Russians. Sociologist Lev Gudkov notes that people sought a leader who could restore economic stability and superpower status. Vladimir Putin, upon taking office in 2000, consolidated power by demanding loyalty from oligarchs, tightening control, and reinforcing military might, aligning with public desires for strength and order, a continuation of Soviet power mechanisms.
Highly centralized authoritarian governments persist in other former Soviet republics. Belarus, Russia's traditional ally, is ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, a former Soviet political officer whose government faces increasing opposition. Kazakhstan, rich in oil and gas, also has an autocratic leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Poorer Central Asian republics like Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, initially struggled with independence due to their dependence on Moscow. Millions of migrant workers from these nations now work in Russia, sending crucial remittances home.
Kyrgyzstan exemplifies the blend of Islamic and Soviet legacies. Rita Igeshova, a tailor whose family works in Russia, observes a shift with more women embracing stricter religious roles, contrasting with the greater equality she remembers from Soviet times. The country, a secular state, grapples with balancing moderate Islam with potential radical influences, as seen in the work of Imam Madaliev, who misses the Soviet era's equality. Despite these challenges, NGOs like Dinara Orunbaşeva's actively campaign for democracy and against corruption, distinguishing Kyrgyz society from its more autocratic Central Asian neighbors.
Russia's handling of dissent, as exemplified by the Chechen wars and the assassination of journalist Anna Politkovskaya, demonstrates a principle of show strength and crush opposition, reminiscent of Soviet-era power mechanisms. This has led to a lack of serious opposition to the Kremlin. The legacy of 'homo sovieticus'—a conformist citizen skilled in surviving a repressive state—persists. Today's Russia, under Putin, finds backing from the Russian Orthodox Church, reinforcing conservative values. Thirty years after the Soviet flag was lowered, Russia remains a global political player but has fallen short of its potential, leaving the true impact of the superpower's collapse still unfolding.