Summary
Highlights
The current Israeli government's policies, influenced by far-right figures, show little acknowledgment of Palestinian territories, making a two-state solution seem increasingly implausible. While condemning Hamas's actions, the underlying causes of Palestinian frustration, such as a lack of progress in daily life, are acknowledged as drivers of radicalization. A return to a serious political process involving major world powers is deemed essential to break the cycle of violence.
Stewart compares the Israeli perspective on Hamas to the British view of the IRA during 'The Troubles', where conversations seemed impossible with murderous groups. He discusses whether the Israel-Palestine scenario is more complex than Northern Ireland, given its shared borders with other Islamic nations. Despite the current hopelessness, drawing on the experience of the Good Friday Agreement, he emphasizes the need to maintain hope for a two-state solution where Israelis and Palestinians can coexist. The extreme polarization of current debates is highlighted as a barrier to nuanced understanding and a constructive path forward.
Rory Stewart provides a historical overview, tracing the Jewish community's presence in the region back 3,000 years, their displacement by the Romans almost 2,000 years ago, and the emergence of the Zionist movement in the late 19th/early 20th century advocating for a Jewish homeland due to centuries of persecution. The British Balfour Declaration supported this, leading to increased Jewish migration back to a region then dominated by Arab Muslim communities.
After World War I, the British Mandate struggled to balance Arab and Jewish interests amidst growing civil conflict. The Holocaust solidified the global belief in the need for a Jewish homeland, leading to the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. This involved the displacement of many Arab Palestinians. In 1967, Israel faced an attack from Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, winning a rapid victory and occupying territories like Gaza and the West Bank, which are now referred to as the 'occupied Palestinian territories'.
The 1990s saw peace talks, notably the Oslo Accords, aiming for a two-state solution with divided territories. A Palestinian Authority emerged in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2004-2005, removing settlers. Shortly after, Hamas, a more radical Islamist group, took control of the Gaza Strip, leading to a division between Hamas-controlled Gaza and the Fatah-controlled West Bank.
A week before the recorded discussion, the US National Security Advisor believed the Middle East was exceptionally peaceful, largely due to Israel's missile defense system. However, internal Israeli politics had been focused on a conflict between liberals and conservatives, with the government moving in a populist, far-right direction. Then, on a Saturday morning, Hamas launched a massive attack from Gaza, firing thousands of rockets and breaching the border, leading to widespread violence against military and civilian targets, including a music festival, and taking over 160 hostages.
From the Palestinian perspective, while many condemn the targeting of civilians, they view Gaza as a 'prison camp' due to Israeli occupation, checkpoints, and lack of basic supplies, experiencing what they call an 'apartheid state'. Israelis, conversely, emphasize the existential threat posed by groups like Hamas and states like Iran, citing their commitment to Israel's elimination and their right to self-defense, highlighting the need for strategic territory like the Golan Heights.
Hamas, originating from the Muslim Brotherhood, is an Islamist organization recognized as a terrorist group by the EU, US, UK, and Australia, though not by much of the rest of the world that sees them as an elected government. After Hamas took control, Gaza faced a blockade by Israel, which controls borders, air, and sea access, as well as essential utilities. Gaza's economy collapsed, sustained by support from Turkey, Qatar, and Iran (with Iran focusing on military support).
The focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict diminished over time, partly due to the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and the perception of the Palestinian Authority as corrupt. The Abraham Accords further marginalized the Palestinian issue. The current situation poses questions for internal Israeli politics, potentially strengthening hardliners but also highlighting intelligence failures and the need for a unity government. Internationally, the involvement of Iran and the possible disruption of Saudi-Israel talks are key concerns.