Summary
Highlights
The number of armed conflicts globally has been persistently increasing, with growing disregard for international law and human rights, a spike in drone warfare, and the emergence of military AI. These trends suggest a continuation of conflicts into 2026, potentially causing tens of thousands more civilian deaths.
Clashes between Thai and Cambodian troops escalated in early December 2025 over disputed border regions, displacing half a million people and resulting in 23 deaths. This follows a series of conflicts throughout 2025. Political tensions are high after a leaked phone call implicated former Thai Prime Minister Shinawatra in praising a Cambodian leader and condemning Thai military commanders, leading to increased anti-Cambodian sentiment in Thailand. The new Thai Prime Minister has ruled out immediate negotiations, signaling potential flare-ups in 2026.
The US has deployed 15,000 troops, warships, and aircraft carriers near Venezuela, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking, but also to pressure President Nicholas Maduro. Controversial US strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats have killed dozens, and a US Defense Secretary reportedly ordered a 'double tap' strike on survivors. The US also seized a Venezuelan oil tanker and imposed sanctions, leading Venezuela to accuse the US of seeking control of its oil reserves. Tensions are high, with direct military confrontation a real possibility in 2026.
Russia's hybrid war has escalated with drones flying into European airspace and a spy ship mapping undersea cables. Europe is responding by increasing defense readiness and deterrence, with France, Germany, and the UK announcing new military preparations. The Ukraine war is expected to continue into its fifth year in 2026, with Europe taking on more of the burden as the US shifts its focus away. NATO leaders are preparing their populations for a potentially large-scale war.
Jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel region, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, are expanding into coastal nations like Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Cote d'Ivoire. Fatalities and kidnappings have surged, and 2026 is expected to see a consolidation of a new front line in the Benin, Niger, and Nigeria borderlands. This crisis is causing persistent instability, hindering economic development, undermining state institutions, and creating a transnational refugee crisis, worsened by US foreign aid cuts.
Sudan's civil war will enter its third year in April 2026, having killed over 150,000 people and displaced 12 million. The conflict pits the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), allegedly backed by the UAE, against the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), supported by Egypt and Turkey. Sudan is effectively split, with the RSF controlling much of western Sudan and Darfur. Analysts expect the conflict to continue in 2026, with both sides consolidating gains and fighting for territory in Cordan despite international efforts to negotiate a ceasefire.
Concerns are heightened among Taiwanese officials about a potential Chinese invasion, especially with Trump's return to office and his unclear stance on intervention. China aims for its military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 and recently conducted its largest maritime show of force. While a naval blockade is considered more likely than a full invasion, it would still risk economic backlash. China's stockpiling of commodities raises concerns about its preparations for conflict, although it could also be for supply chain security.
Other notable ongoing conflicts include those between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Congo and Rwanda in East Africa, and India and Pakistan in Kashmir. There are also proxy conflicts in the Middle East, a civil war in Myanmar, and rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The ICRC highlights armed conflict as a defining feature of our time, with 2026 likely seeing a continuation of localized conflicts and a widening gap in humanitarian aid.