Summary
Highlights
The Dalai Lama, spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhists, activist, humanitarian, and Nobel Peace Prize winner, is 90 years old. His impending succession is complicated by China's long-standing occupation of Tibet. China views the Dalai Lama institution as a launchpad for power and aims to install a puppet leader to complete its subjugation of Tibetan culture.
The reincarnation system is a unique form of succession in Tibetan Buddhism. The current Dalai Lama was identified at two years old, recognizing items and a deputy of the deceased 13th Dalai Lama. He assumed political leadership of Tibet in 1950, a historically challenging role due to Tibet's position as a buffer state between powerful nations. After China's communist takeover in 1950, despite initial promises of autonomy, China's brutal policies led to a Tibetan revolt in 1959. The Dalai Lama fled to India, establishing a government in exile, while China cracked down on Tibet, aiming for cultural and civilizational domination.
From exile, the Dalai Lama built a global movement to preserve Tibetan identity, gaining support from world leaders and celebrities. Despite historical tensions within Tibetan Buddhism, he united them under his leadership. China, infuriated by his influence, labeled him a separatist. However, the Dalai Lama advocates for the 'Middle Way' - Tibetan autonomy within China, primarily for the preservation of Tibetan Buddhist culture, rather than full independence. He strongly opposes violence, a stance not always met with understanding from the Chinese government.
China's strategy for controlling the Dalai Lama's succession is based on a precedent from 1995. When the 10th Panchen Lama (the second-highest-ranking leader) died, senior lamas identified a five-year-old boy as his successor. Days later, China abducted the boy and his family. China then presented its own chosen Panchen Lama, claiming he was selected through a traditional 'golden urn' ritual. This Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama now reliably supports the Communist Party line, demonstrating China's ability to destabilize Tibetan leadership even with an illegitimate figure.
China plans to use the same 'golden urn' method to select the next Dalai Lama, rejecting any foreign-named candidate. The current Dalai Lama has emphasized his sole authority in deciding his reincarnation, even considering changes like reincarnating as a female or in a free country. While these adjustments offer flexibility, they won't deter China from naming its own Dalai Lama. This will likely result in two claimants to the title, creating unprecedented challenges for the legitimate 15th Dalai Lama in maintaining the worldwide movement and navigating a Chinese-controlled rival.
China's increasing dominance in other regions, including the Uyghur minority, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Taiwan, often makes headlines. However, the dispute over Tibet remains significant. Past protests and riots in Tibet, in 1987 and 2008, were condemned and helped ended by the Dalai Lama. China, despite disliking him, benefits from his ability to control the more radical elements of the Tibetan movement. If the next Dalai Lama lacks this influence, China's attempt to hijack the succession could backfire, potentially reawakening a more violent fight for Tibetan independence.