Summary
Highlights
The displacement crisis in Afghanistan stems from the US invasion in October 2001, following the 9/11 attacks, aimed at al-Qaeda and the Taliban government. After 20 years, US troops withdrew in August 2021, leading to the Taliban quickly regaining control. The UN reports over 10.3 million displaced Afghans, including 3.2 million internally displaced and 5.8 million refugees abroad. The withdrawal in September 2021 alone led to 124,000 Afghans leaving the country and another 650,000 newly displaced internally.
The primary cause of displacement is the political conflict between Taliban forces and US-backed Afghan governments. The Taliban, an ultra-conservative religious group, imposes strict Islamic laws, banning media not aligning with their views. Despite being removed in 2001, they controlled 40% of Afghanistan by 2017 and re-established full control by September 2021. Since then, they have reinstated public executions and amputations, establishing a 'morality police' to enforce strict laws and punish dissent.
Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. Extreme droughts in 2017-2018 left 13.5 million Afghans food insecure. The country has seen a 0.5-degree temperature increase in 50 years, projected to rise by 5 degrees by 2100. This warming causes early glacier melt, leading to floods and landslides in spring, and water loss due to evaporation in summer. Afghanistan relies on glacial melt for water, and without intervention, could lose 90% of its glaciers by 2100, impacting both agricultural and urban populations.
The Taliban has expanded repressive control over women and girls, implementing new morality laws that ban women's voices and bare faces in public, and severely restrict education and employment. Women are excluded from public life, girls are stopped from schooling after sixth grade, and access to work, travel, and healthcare is limited. Unmarried women must have a male guardian. These restrictions, including prohibitions on eye contact with unrelated men and mandatory full-body coverings, are prompting some women to leave Afghanistan in search of greater opportunities.
The Taliban takeover has emboldened militant groups like the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), leading to increased terrorist operations in Pakistan. An attack in July 2024 by Afghan militants killed eight Pakistani soldiers, highlighting growing cross-border tensions. Afghanistan and Pakistan recently met in Istanbul to ease tensions, which have escalated with accusations of Afghanistan harboring the TTP. Pakistan conducted retaliatory airstrikes in Afghanistan, killing alleged insurgents, which led to Afghan forces attacking a Pakistani post, killing 58 soldiers. A ceasefire was mediated by Qatar in October 2025. Pakistan has since closed most border crossings and is deporting undocumented Afghans, causing further displacement and disrupting trade.
The conflict profoundly impacts families. Ali, his wife Faros Shatha, and their two children are Afghan refugees in Serbia, hoping to reach Germany. Ali, 24, was threatened by the Taliban to join them or pay for his family's safety. Unable to comply, they embarked on a perilous journey across Afghanistan and Pakistan, enduring harsh conditions and lack of food and water. They are now housed in a refugee camp in Serbia, unable to leave due to closed borders in Europe, relying on increasingly scarce handouts, and their children have been out of school for months.