Summary
Highlights
Steven Walt describes Trump's foreign policy as 'predatory hegemony,' characterized by mercenary tactics and a focus on short-term gain over long-term stability. This approach demands tribute and flattery, and seeks to enrich Trump and his family personally. Although effective in the short term due to countries' economic dependence on the US, it is ultimately disastrous, pushing allies towards other powers like China and leaving the US isolated.
Walt was surprised by the extent of Trump's foreign policy ambition and the lack of Republican pushback. Trump's worldview, rooted in his business career, shows contempt for rules and laws, viewing interactions as win-lose scenarios. This approach has been applied to both domestic opponents and international allies, striving to extract the maximum benefit for the US, a departure from previous administrations.
Just as Trump's business practices led to a reputation as an unreliable partner, his international policies create similar risks. While countries may initially make concessions, the constant renegotiation and demands for better terms will eventually push them to seek more reliable partners, even if suboptimal, leading to a long-term diminution of American wealth, power, and influence.
Walt argues that the seeds of Trump's rise were sown in the 'unipolar era' after the Cold War, where US hubris led to careless policies. This included NATO expansion provoking Russia, misguided military interventions, and hyper-globalization that exacerbated financial instability and domestic inequality. These factors created conditions for an outsider like Trump to gain traction by criticizing the establishment.
Trump appealed to public anger against elites despite being part of the oligarchic class. He effectively connected with the masses by adopting a flexible, populist rhetoric, exemplified by his 'build a wall' promise. His communication style, akin to an 'ordinary person,' resonated with his base, unlike more academic politicians.
The fracturing of alliances under Trump is forcing European countries to chart more independent courses, potentially leading to greater European unity. This will reduce their dependence on the US economy and their willingness to comply with American requests. Over time, other countries will seek alternatives, leading to diminished US influence and a less favorable global position.
The US maintains strong financial influence due to the dollar's reserve currency status and control over global money transfers. This allows the US to block transactions and coerce countries, as seen with Iran. However, other nations are actively seeking alternatives to this coercive leverage, aiming to reduce their vulnerability to US financial pressure.
The Trump administration's dismantling of soft power mechanisms like USAID and the Voice of America, as well as withdrawal from international organizations, undermines American influence. The global perception of the US is declining due to domestic events and perceived cruelty, making it less attractive as a partner or a model, and geopolitically weakening the US against rivals.
Trump's attempts to renegotiate trade deals with Canada and Mexico, despite having previously lauded them, further damage critical relationships. This forces these countries to diversify their trade arrangements and forge new relationships that bypass the US, choosing more reliable partners over a predatory Trump administration.
Trump's 'peace plans' are compared to 'Trump University' – unserious arrangements designed to undercut existing international institutions and personally enrich him and his family. The 'board of peace' proposal, including figures like Putin and Netanyahu, is seen as a cynical move to consolidate power and accumulate wealth, unprecedented in American history.
Trump's demand for sycophantic flattery reflects a cult of personality, similar to authoritarian regimes, reinforcing his image as a nearly divine figure. While foreign leaders may flatter him for better deals, these actions don't guarantee long-term favor. Some leaders discover political benefits from standing up to Trump, realizing that accommodation doesn't work, and principled opposition can yield positive domestic results.
Predatory hegemony is not new, with historical parallels including Athens' empire, the Chinese tributary system, and European colonial empires. While the US historically avoided this with allies, Trump's approach treats allies predatorily. A better alternative would be cooperative adjustments to global commitments rather than tearing up existing arrangements through threats and demands for unfair advantage.
The Trump administration has accelerated the decline of diplomacy by gutting the State Department and relying on inexperienced individuals for critical negotiations. This consolidation of foreign policy authority in the White House, coupled with a distrust of the 'deep state,' leads to amateurish handling of complex international conflicts like Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran.
Trump's strategy of bluffing and threatening to withdraw military commitments to extract concessions is unsustainable. If allies believe the threat, they will seek other protections, eroding US leverage. If threats are made repeatedly without action, they become meaningless. This short-term coercive tactic ultimately weakens long-term US influence and benefits.
The current trajectory points to a more dangerous world with competing power centers and diminished American influence. It also suggests a poorer world due to reduced economic cooperation, a warmer world due to climate policy reversals, and a less healthy world as global public health programs are withdrawn. Trump's preference for authoritarian leaders further consolidates illiberal democracy globally.