Summary
Highlights
Joe Boore explains why the question 'Should the World Fear China?' is significant, as it reflects a Western attitude of uncertainty and fear towards China's rise. He believes this is a good question for stimulating discussion.
Boore highlights that fear of China is primarily concentrated in the West, which constitutes only 14% of the world's population. He contrasts this with the Global South, particularly Africa, where China often receives a more favorable view due to economic opportunities. He acknowledges complicated views in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific, especially regarding India, but dismisses the idea of China trying to encircle India as 'nonsense'.
Discussing the 2020 border clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers, Boore notes it was an unfortunate but isolated incident since 1979. He emphasizes that despite the physical brawl, neither side used firearms, suggesting that past confidence-building measures have been effective.
Boore comments on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency, suggesting that a second term would further diminish America's global image. He notes that Trump has been less hostile towards China than initially expected, possibly due to lessons learned from his first term and China's improved preparedness for such interactions.
Boore points out two significant changes in China over the last decade: the transformation of the Chinese navy into a blue-water navy through its anti-piracy operations, and a shift in China's diplomacy from non-interference to more active engagement, exemplified by its mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Acknowledging the fear a rapidly growing Chinese navy might induce, Boore explains its purpose goes beyond Taiwan. He states that a major power needs a strong navy to protect its vast overseas interests and fulfill international obligations, such as escorting international ships in humanitarian missions.
Boore addresses why China still refers to itself as a developing country, arguing there's no international consensus on the definition. He explains that while China is the second-largest economy by GDP (and largest by PPP), its per capita income still places it as a developing nation, leading to a sometimes confusing reality. He states China wears many hats, and these seemingly contradictory aspects are all true.
Boore discusses the need for China to overcome its 'lingering victimhood' mentality, especially given its growing strength. He believes Chinese people need a more nuanced understanding of their history, moving beyond just periods of suffering to embrace their current power and take on international responsibilities. He differentiates between patriotism and nationalism, advocating for self-education.
Regarding future US-China relations under Trump, Boore admits to uncertainty but expects more clarity within months. He stresses that the two largest economies must interact, and while Trump may be preoccupied, he will eventually focus on China. He also noted that while Trump accuses China of protectionism, the US seems to be moving away from the international rules it once championed.
Boore debunks the 'myth' that China wants to change the existing international order itself. Instead, he clarifies that China takes issue with the Western definition of the international order as solely 'liberal,' arguing that the true international order is much broader, encompassing diverse political systems, identities, religions, and civilizations.
Dismissing the Western narrative of the BRI as a 'debt trap,' Boore argues that such a massive investment (over a trillion USD) would not be used merely to lay a trap. He acknowledges potential mistakes due to inexperience in such a large initiative but emphasizes its economic nature and the opportunities it provides for participant countries like Pakistan.
Boore clarifies that the 'no limits' description of China-Russia relations is rhetorical, signifying goodwill rather than a formal alliance. He highlights that Russia's actions in Ukraine confirm this is not an alliance, as China has not provided military aid and has warned against nuclear weapons use.
Boore explains that China's attempts to mediate the Ukraine conflict through proposals like the 12-point peace plan have not been successful due to high expectations from some parties. He reiterates China's commitment to peace by not providing military assistance, thus not 'throwing wood into the fire'.
Looking five years ahead, Boore predicts a more chaotic United States and a stronger China with a growing economy. He suggests that the West might become more 'pacified' over time, leading to major global players like China, India, and Brazil potentially collaborating to discuss the future world order.