Summary
Highlights
Ecuador, once an 'island of peace' with low murder rates, has experienced an extraordinary acceleration in violence. This transformation is deeply connected to the international cocaine market, which enables criminal organizations to grow rapidly due to enormous profit margins.
Cocaine production has historically been concentrated in the Andes. Initially, Colombian gangs controlled routes to the United States via the Caribbean. As demand in Europe grew, new routes emerged, utilizing container ships from South American ports, with Guayaquil in Ecuador becoming a key hub due to corrupt port authorities and less scrutiny.
The FARC, a Colombian rebel group, controlled a significant trafficking route along the Ecuador-Colombia border, efficiently supplying cocaine to Europe. Their dominance minimized gang conflicts in Ecuador, contributing to its low murder rate and its reputation as an 'island of peace.'
US demand for cocaine declined in the 2000s, while demand in Europe surged due to expanding markets and less anti-drug security. European gangs, including Italian, Dutch, and Balkan groups, began buying cocaine directly from South America, taking over transportation and profit margins, making Europe the most lucrative market.
The 2016 peace deal and demobilization of FARC created a dangerous power vacuum along the trafficking routes. Smaller Ecuadorian gangs, backed by European and Mexican criminal groups, rushed to fill this void. Ecuador's government, ill-equipped due to a lack of anti-drug agencies and cuts in security spending, was unprepared for the ensuing surge in gang violence and prison riots, leading to an explosion in its homicide rate.
By 2023, gangs were powerful enough to assassinate a presidential candidate, and a gang leader's prison escape in early 2024 sparked widespread violence. Ecuador's new president is struggling to regain control against well-funded and heavily armed gangs. This crisis is not isolated, as 18 out of 21 Latin American countries are now key sources or transit points for cocaine, with new routes emerging through countries like Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and the Caribbean, all experiencing unprecedented surges in violence due to global cocaine demand.