Summary
Highlights
The speaker introduces the concept of investing with a long-term thesis, aiming to hold stocks indefinitely. He highlights the importance of monitoring performance but emphasizes a 'never sell' list for companies expected to be popular and profitable for decades. He will cover four such stocks that he only plans to add to, not sell.
Alphabet is presented as the first 'never sell' stock. It's lauded for its vast ecosystem, including search, Android, YouTube, Gmail, and AI tools, with multiple products serving billions of users. Unlike Nvidia, Alphabet has minimal concentration risk due to its diverse user base and product offerings. Google Cloud is highlighted as a major growth engine with significant operating leverage and a 30% compound annual growth rate. The speaker also mentions Alphabet's ownership of Waymo, predicting it could be worth hundreds of billions to a trillion dollars in the future, leading the autonomous driving market.
Despite not being a popular choice among some investors due to past stock performance, Disney is identified as a 'never sell' stock. The company has successfully transitioned to primarily a parks and streaming business. Disney consistently produces top-grossing movies, demonstrating its continued dominance in family entertainment. Analyzing its financials via Fiscal AI, the entertainment segment generates strong operating margins, with direct-to-consumer streaming revenue three times larger than linear networks. The sports segment (ESPN) is positioned for future growth through streaming, and the experiences segment (parks and cruises) is a significant profit driver with $10 billion in operating income, fueled by continuous reinvestment and expansion.
Coinbase is the third 'never sell' stock, seen as the leader in the disruptive blockchain space. While its revenue can be volatile due to transaction-based earnings, the non-transaction revenue sources like stablecoins (USDC), blockchain rewards, interest, and custodial fees are growing significantly. Coinbase is building essential blockchain infrastructure, including wallets and the base blockchain, positioning it as a key player in cryptocurrencies and blockchain for decades to come, especially as institutions adopt the technology.
Uber is the final 'never sell' stock, recognized as the most valuable company in ride-sharing and product delivery, including physical goods. Its strength lies in aggregating demand, with nearly 190 million monthly active platform customers and billions of trips annually. The speaker believes Uber's market will expand massively with autonomous driving and robotics, making car ownership optional in developed countries. This long-term trend reinforces Uber's position as a fundamentally integral part of future transportation and delivery, solidifying its 'never sell' status.
The speaker reiterates the four 'never sell' stocks: Alphabet, Disney, Coinbase, and Uber. He encourages viewers to comment on their thoughts and promotes Fiscal AI as a valuable platform for investment research, highlighting its comprehensive data and instant updates during earnings season.