عقدة هرمز وعالم ما بعد أمريكا | بودكاست الشرق مع محمد المختار الشنقيطي

Dr. Al-Shinqiti draws a parallel between the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Crisis of 1956. He suggests that just as Suez marked the shift of imperial power from London and Paris to Washington and Moscow, Hormuz might symbolize the weakening of American global influence and the dawn of a 'post-America' world. He highlights Britain's historical strategy of controlling 'chokepoints' like Hormuz and Suez to dominate global trade, and how America inherited this approach. The current situation suggests a loosening of the American grip on these vital maritime passages, signaling a major geopolitical shift.

The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz involves direct actors like Iran, the United States, and Israel. However, indirect but crucial players include China and Russia. China, though not directly engaged militarily, supports Iran through technological assistance, satellite imagery, and strategic infrastructure like the 'Iron Silk Road' railway, which provides an alternative to U.S.-controlled sea lanes. Russia benefits from the conflict by diverting U.S. attention and resources from Ukraine and by having U.S. sanctions on its oil and gas lifted. The primary losers are the Gulf Arab states and the global economy, due to the region's importance for energy supplies.

Dr. Al-Shinqiti argues that America's aggressive and erratic behavior, especially under President Trump, is a sign of weakness rather than strength. He contrasts this with China's calm, calculated, and indirect approach. America's strategic decision-making has become impulsive, betraying its allies and undermining the very international order it established. The U.S. has lost the trust of its European, Arab, and East Asian allies, who are now paying a heavy price for American policies without receiving adequate support. Israel, through its influence, frequently draws the U.S. into conflicts that serve Israeli interests but are strategically detrimental to America.

The current global system is eroding, and a new one is taking shape. This transition is marked by America's declining influence, internal divisions within the U.S., and a loss of international trust. The region surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is emerging as a central stage for this global transformation, often pulling American attention back from its 'pivot to Asia.' This is partly due to its inherent geopolitical importance (energy, waterways) and partly due to Israel's continuous efforts to keep the U.S. entangled in regional affairs for its own survival. There is a growing need for a new, more cohesive regional order in the Middle East to overcome existing conflicts, particularly sectarian ones, and foster economic cooperation.

While there are some existing and potential alternative routes for energy exports (e.g., pipelines to the Red Sea or Arabian Sea), these are limited, expensive, and not entirely secure. The genuine alternative lies in regional cooperation and integration among Middle Eastern states, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. This proposed bloc could create a balance of power and mutual interests that reduces reliance on external powers. China's strategic initiatives, like the Iran-China railway, also underline the shift toward alternative trade routes and economic systems independent of the U.S. dollar.

China's strategy in the current conflict is to leverage America's exhaustion. While facing some economic costs from the conflict, China prioritizes the long-term strategic gain of weakening U.S. dominance. China covertly supports Iran's control over Hormuz, seeing it as beneficial for undermining U.S. influence, even if it means paying 'environmental fees' to Iran. The Chinese leadership's explicit mention of the 'Thucydides Trap' (the inevitable conflict between a rising and a ruling power) signifies confidence in its growing power, suggesting China is prepared for, but prefers to avoid, direct confrontation while asserting its global leadership.

Existing international institutions like the UN Security Council are becoming obsolete as they no longer reflect current global power dynamics. The dominance of the U.S. dollar is also being challenged by alternatives, such as China's use of its currency and barter systems in trade with Iran and Russia. This foreshadows a systemic change in the global economic and financial structure. The shift away from the dollar's hegemony is a gradual process led by China, providing an opportunity for other nations to diversify their economic relationships and reduce dependence on the U.S.-centric financial system. This new global order, whether multipolar or characterized by a U.S.-China power-sharing, offers opportunities for the Islamic world to assert its own role.

Some analysts, like Robert Pape, predict that Iran could emerge as a powerful global force after this war, primarily due to its potential control over the Strait of Hormuz and its regional influence. For Iran to achieve this, it would need to solidify its control over Hormuz, gain regional recognition for this, and potentially develop nuclear capabilities for deterrence. The overall trend indicates a transition to a multipolar world where the West's centuries-long dominance will recede to its demographic and geographical proportion. Dr. Al-Shinqiti hopes for a stronger, more united Muslim bloc that can negotiate its place in this new order, potentially aligning with China to offset Western influence while establishing its own self-reliance.