Summary
Highlights
Professor Bartlett begins by introducing the exponential function as the mathematical description of anything that grows steadily. He explains the concept of 'doubling time,' calculated by dividing 70 by the percent growth rate per unit time. He illustrates this with various examples, such as the cost of a ski lift ticket and the grains of wheat on a chessboard, to show the rapid and often underestimated large numbers generated by steady growth.
The lecture then shifts to the energy crisis, highlighting an historical advertisement from 1975 about electricity consumption doubling every 10-12 years (7% growth). Bartlett emphasizes that in just one doubling time, the amount consumed exceeds all prior consumption. He relates this to President Carter's statement about oil consumption and demonstrates how small growth rates lead to massive increases over a human lifetime, using Boulder's population growth as a local example to show the unsustainability of even modest growth rates.
Bartlett uses the analogy of bacteria doubling in a bottle to illustrate the rapid depletion of resources in a finite environment. If bacteria double every minute and the bottle is full at noon, it was half full at 11:59 AM. He applies this to open space in Boulder, noting that even with 15 times more open space, 'noon' (resource depletion) is only minutes away. He extends this to the discovery of new resources, showing that even finding three new bottles only extends the lifespan by a few doubling times, debunking the idea that new discoveries can sustain indefinite exponential growth.
Professor Bartlett analyzes world oil production, which grew at 7% per year until the 1970s. He demonstrates with calculations and graphical representations that if this growth had continued, oil reserves would have been depleted quickly. He critically examines common optimistic predictions about coal reserves, revealing that figures like '500 years of coal' are based on zero growth assumptions. When realistic growth rates are applied, the lifespan of coal dramatically shrinks to within a human lifetime, debunking statements from experts, journalists, and scientists who fail to account for exponential growth.
Bartlett introduces Dr. M. King Hubbert's model, which predicts a bell-shaped curve for resource consumption, with an early growth phase, a peak, and then a decline. He shows that US oil production peaked in 1970, exactly as Hubbert predicted in 1956, and is now on the downhill side. He discusses the limited impact of new discoveries, like those in the Gulf of Mexico, using the example of a 700 million barrel discovery satisfying US needs for only 42 days. He projects the peak of world oil production to occur within the students' lifetime, between 2004 and 2030, depending on reserves.
Bartlett argues that modern society has an "exponential growth culture" that treats growth as a national religion, even when it leads to unsustainable outcomes. He introduces the "First Law of Sustainability": population growth and/or growth in resource consumption rates cannot be sustained. He criticizes "technological optimists" who believe science will solve all problems, citing examples of flawed logic from figures like Julian Simon. He uses Isaac Asimov's "bathroom metaphor" to illustrate how overpopulation destroys democracy and human dignity, and highlights how US population growth erodes democracy and environmental preservation efforts, stating that the US has the world's worst population growth problem due to its high per capita consumption.
Bartlett concludes by reiterating his belief that humanity's greatest flaw is its inability to grasp exponential growth. He urges critical thinking, checking facts and arithmetic, and remembering that "thinking is very upsetting, it tells us things we'd rather not know." He uses the example of the Aswan Dam to show how solutions to problems can create new, unforeseen problems. He challenges the audience to identify any problem whose long-term solution is aided by larger populations. He references Martin Luther King Jr., who noted that the solution to overpopulation is known, but universal awareness and education are lacking.