People Have NO IDEA What's Coming For The Stock Market

The Kosh investing portfolio increased by 1.82% over the last week, bringing the year-to-date gain to 9.56%, while the S&P was down 0.35%. The presenter expresses doubt that this rapid growth will continue. The upcoming week includes significant earnings reports, renewed trade tensions, and the World Economic Forum. The US market will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.

The presenter discusses holdings outside the main portfolio, including Korore Iron (up 15.7%) and PayPal options (still down). Upcoming earnings reports for Netflix (new position), United Airlines, Interactive Brokers, Intel, and Intuitive Surgical are highlighted. The presenter took some profits in Rocket Lab but still views it as a good company, though potentially overvalued. Meta position was increased by 12%. Other holdings like Alibaba, Oscar, Shift 4, Rubric, PayPal shares, Pagaya, and Duolingo are mentioned, with Duolingo being an aggressive, regretted entry.

The presenter warns that the portfolio's recent good performance might not last due to returning trade wars and tariffs. The EU-Mercosur trade deal, signed after 25 years, is discussed, which aims to dismantle approximately 90% of tariffs. The US seeks to acquire Greenland, leading to renewed tensions and potential US tariffs of 10% (rising to 25%) on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1st, 2026. The EU is reportedly preparing 93 billion euros in retaliatory tariffs. The market dislikes instability, and while this situation may differ from past trade disputes, it presents opportunities to buy good companies at better prices during market overreactions. Investors should have cash ready for potential pullbacks.

The German-US trading balance has seen a significant drop, and the German economy grew by only 0.2% in 2023, highlighting the importance of trade. The World Economic Forum will run for four days with a focus on 'a spirit of dialogue'. 12 out of 27 EU countries have debt-to-GDP ratios over 60%, with five exceeding 100%. Truflation's US CPI inflation index is at 1.56%, suggesting inflation is well below 2%, contrasting with government figures. Market data indicates potential pullbacks: and S&P equity put-to-call ratio below 0.47 and total put-call ratio below 0.74 have historically led to pullbacks. The Russell 2000 outperforming the S&P 500 for 11 consecutive days also suggests a potential temporary downturn, but long-term S&P 500 performance is positive when 69.7% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-day moving average. Cocoa prices have significantly dropped, and the 'Fear & Greed Index' is indicating 'Greed'. Software names have had a horrible performance over the last year, potentially offering value. Retail options trading share is high, indicating potential volatility and risk of margin calls and liquidations.

Micron has signed a letter of intent to purchase a Tongluo site and begin a strategic partnership with PSMC, acquiring a fabrication site for $1.8 billion. This move aims to meet the high demand for memory chips. The probability of a rate cut for January is 5%, for March is 20.7%, for April is 30.2%, and for June is 45.6%, all lower than previous estimates. The Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs has a 33% chance to be in his favor, with an answer expected soon.

In football, the AFCON final saw Senegal beat Morocco in a controversial game. In the Premier League, Forest drew with Arsenal, Villa lost to Everton, and Manchester United defeated Manchester City. In the Bundesliga, Bayern won 5-1 against Leipzig. Liverpool had a mixed result, and Chelsea won against Brentford. Real Madrid secured a win despite being booed by their fans. Transfer news mentions Carney Chukwuemeka possibly moving from Chelsea to Manchester City. The presenter expresses frustration with Chelsea's transfer strategy. The Australian Open tennis tournament has started, and the presenter asks for predictions. The video concludes with entertainment recommendations: 'Vikings Valhalla' and the first 'Iron Man' movie, emphasizing an ironic quote about Jim Cramer.