Summary
Highlights
The video introduces the topic of why suddenly shifting your trading bias after being stopped out is dangerous. The presenter explains that sometimes it takes multiple attempts to correctly catch a market trend, and he will demonstrate this with a trade review where he maintained his bullish bias.
The presenter highlights that the market was in a strong bullish trend on both daily and 4-hour timeframes. He emphasizes the importance of trading with the trend, stating that attempting to short in a bullish market is often a mistake. His strategy was to seek long positions, which he did three separate times.
On Friday, May 1st, the market opened with a massive upward surge, clearing London and Asia highs. The presenter initially thought the trading session might be over due to the rapid move. He waited for a pullback to a 15-minute breakaway gap, an internal-to-external model. He took a front-run entry on a green candle. After gaining 30-35 points, he moved his stop loss to break even due to a 5-minute bearish sell-side imbalance, scaling off 90% of his position. The trade eventually hit his break-even point.
After the first trade hit break-even, the market reacted out of an inversion. The presenter took a second long entry, confident in the market's upward direction. The market moved up about 20 points, and he again moved his stop to break even and scaled off profits, as the 5-minute gap was still holding price. This second trade also hit break-even. He explains that at all-time highs, protecting profits by moving to break-even is crucial due to the potential for sharp pullbacks.
The best trade setup emerged with an optional SMT (Smart Money Technique) formation. The Nasdaq failed to take a swing low, while the S&P 500 took its swing low, indicating a bullish SMT. This added confluence reinforced his bullish bias. He entered the trade again after a 1-minute inversion and a 2-minute candle closure, targeting 91 points with a 2.66 RR. This time, the trade resulted in a full distribution to his target.
The presenter concludes by reiterating that sometimes it takes multiple attempts to correctly catch a trend. The key is not to shift your bias just because you were stopped out, especially if the higher timeframes and liquidity points still support your original bias. Paying for information (taking small losses at break-even) and waiting for additional confluence, like the SMT, can lead to successful trades, even after initial setbacks.