Why we should fear this new nuclear age

The first nuclear age began with the US use of atomic bombs, leading to a dangerous arms race with the Soviet Union, epitomized by the Doomsday Clock nearing midnight. The second nuclear age followed the collapse of the Soviet Union, marked by disarmament, treaties, and a reduction in nuclear arsenals, pushing the clock back to 17 minutes to midnight.

The clock is now at 1 minute and 29 seconds to midnight, signifying the start of the third nuclear age. Experts agree this new era is the most dangerous yet, with a more competitive international system and a resurgence of nuclear weapons' prominence. The video questions whether Donald Trump will de-escalate or exacerbate this threat.

The first nuclear age was perilous due to the US-Soviet arms race, nearly leading to conflict during the Cuban Missile Crisis. This led to arms control treaties like the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Salt 1, and the INF Treaty. The second nuclear age saw dramatic reductions in arsenals, further treaties (START, New START), and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, alongside the US nuclear umbrella offering protection to allies.

The US-Russia relationship deteriorated, leading to the abandonment of arms control treaties like the INF Treaty and Russia's suspension from the New START Treaty. This has paved the way for a new arms race, with Russia modernizing its nuclear forces with hypersonic missiles and underwater drones, and lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

Unlike the Cold War's two-party standoff, the third nuclear age introduces a three-way competition with China rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, aiming to match the US and Russia. This complex dynamic, potentially leading to a 'two-on-one' scenario between Russia/China and the US, could allow for greater geopolitical 'mischief' under nuclear deterrence.

The new era heightens the risk of proliferation, with countries like South Korea and Iran considering acquiring nuclear weapons, straining the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Additionally, comments from figures like Donald Trump have caused US allies to doubt the reliability of the US nuclear umbrella, prompting considerations for alternative European nuclear deterrents, which would require significant and destabilizing expansion.

Despite past rhetoric, Donald Trump has recently expressed caution about nuclear weapons and proposed a deal with Russia and China. To manage this new age, Trump could extend the New START Treaty with Russia, initiate dialogue with China regarding its nuclear buildup for increased predictability, and importantly, recommit to the US nuclear umbrella by reassuring allies of continued protection. Effective nuclear deterrence relies on clear communication and credible assurances.