Summary
On this video, we saw new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The probability was on our side, however, the short-term forecast did not unfold. This video covers the current stock market trends, how Bitcoin moves in relation, and the probability of things going up or down. I'll get to those in just a moment. As per usual, like this content if you find value from it. Subscribe to the channel if you're new here. link in the video description is for our reports coming out today and the lifetime discount on TIA Pro. First things first, let me address the short-term forecast that we were watching in regards to the overbalance in time and price on the S&P 500. And that was in regards to the pullback that we saw during this war phase. It started before the war and then was exacerbated by the war to the downside. One thing we did get right was when the pattern broke and we saw further upside to the market. That was on the video we did on Thursday and Friday on the 3rd of April. But more importantly, back to the the forecast that didn't work out in the short term, we're watching for the overbalance in time and price. So watching this market fall because this was the largest fall that we'd seen since the April tariff crash low. And this one here was obviously the largest. Typically, what would happen with the probabilities is that when we see this type of event occur is that we would then see a rally somewhere below the prior all-time high and with the new all-time high, it now uh resets the count. We would see a rally into maybe a lower high and then a retest of those lower prices. This did not occur. Therefore, the probabilities were stacked on our side and it didn't happen this time. This is just part of trading and investing. The thing that hasn't just because this has happened, the thing that hasn't changed now is the uh longer-term outlooks. We've got some of the forecasts in regards to the S&P 500 and the stock markets and of course the 18-year cycle. Just one minor uh rally against the the trend when the trend was down on the daily it basically went up doesn't change the 18-year cycle. So just to clarify that now during this particular rally that we've just seen, a couple of things that we've noted along the way is of course the lower volume on the way up for the futures market and we've seen this happen multiple times before and I'll I'll show that in a sec but this rally that we've seen this has been floating around the internet the last 24 hours. This rally basically puts it in the 100th percentile. I think it's only ever happened once since 1950 where we've seen so many green days in a row. S&P 500 rolling 10-day returns. So positive days in 10 days current plus 9.8% it's 100%. This rarely happens and unfortunately this was one of those and that's what is meant by the probabilities either on your side or off your side. In this case, one in 76 years it happened. We didn't get it. Okay, let's move on to the next phases of the cycle. So, I'll come back to the volume. We're watching this rally up now on lower volume. We just saw the price break to new all-time highs and the before hours pit session at the moment is hitting fresh all-time highs again. 7,000 77 points for the S&P 500. Now, this happens so often it's I wouldn't say it's unbelievable, but it's almost uncanny that, you know, we got to give it a few more days. This is basically the first day that we can see from the low-volume rallies back here in December, which is a typical time to have low volume. But again, through these peaks, through the rally up, through this rally, which broke a new all-time high as well, that rally in June of 2025, low-volume rallies, they basically stall out and come back and test the prices. And it's um even pro more problematic problematic when it happens near all-time highs. Look at this one here in October last year, 2025, after that big flush out when Trump was going to put the tariffs up on China by 100%. you had a rally to new fresh highs on low volume. Now, it took a few days and then came all the way back into November. And this typically, this thing typically happens time and time again. Low volume, rally to new highs, pull back throughout this entire move into the the current highs of 7,000, you know, nearly 7,100 points. It's happened over and over again. So although this uh you know I've talked about this the overbalance in time of price didn't work this time one time in 76 years we are still seeing low volume into this rally. So I think it's a matter of time now to see where this thing pulls back to just like it has done most other times. Could it be another one in 76 year possibility? Of course.
