المُخبر الاقتصادي+ | كيف تتراجع صناعة السيارات الألمانية وتخسر أمام الصين؟ هذا ثمن دعم أوكرانيا؟

Days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European energy ministers met to discuss the impact on the European energy market, given the continent's heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies. Approximately 40% of Europe's natural gas needs were met by Russia. Although Europe miraculously managed to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and navigate the winter of 2022 without a catastrophe, the cost was a significant increase in energy prices, severely affecting consumers and industrial sectors, especially in Germany.

Germany, previously the most reliant on Russian energy, avoided the worst-case scenario early in the war but couldn't escape the long-term effects of losing Russian gas. This is evident in the current state of its economy, particularly the industrial sector, which is the main driver of the German economy. German industry, once its pride, is now struggling under high costs, especially energy prices. Most German industries are energy-intensive, making energy a crucial factor in production costs. After more than two and a half years of the war, German industry's resilience is now in question. A telling sign was Volkswagen's announcement in September 2024 about considering closing two factories in Germany, an unprecedented move in its 87-year history, signaling a severe crisis for the German economy.

In August 2022, Russia's Gazprom announced a temporary shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for maintenance, which was then extended indefinitely due to a 'technical issue', leading to accusations of using energy as a weapon. In September, Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were ruptured under the Baltic Sea. Initial accusations pointed to Russia, but this was questioned as Russia would be destroying its own vital infrastructure. Later, it became apparent that Ukraine, the US, Netherlands, and Germany had foreknowledge of a Ukrainian plot to sabotage the pipelines. This act, while a blow to Russia, also severely impacted Germany, which was still reliant on Russian gas. The sabotage led to a significant increase in energy prices in Germany, forcing it to rely more on more expensive liquefied natural gas.

In late 2022, the German parliament approved a 100-billion-euro plan to cap gas and electricity prices to alleviate the burden on individuals and businesses. However, many felt this was insufficient. The German Finance Minister announced the end of this price cap plan by the end of 2023, citing budget constraints. He also rejected a plan to provide subsidized electricity to industrial facilities. This withdrawal of government support left German industries, especially energy-intensive ones, to bear the brunt of high energy prices.

The German automotive industry, a major economic driver, is heavily affected. Its past success was built on low production costs, particularly cheap Russian energy, and strong sales in the Chinese market. Now, it faces high energy costs and declining sales in China due to the rise of Chinese automakers like BYD. Volkswagen, which previously sold nearly half its production in China, is struggling. The company announced that its six German factories produce 500,000 cars more than it can sell, indicating excess capacity. This means Volkswagen must either increase production (which is not possible due to lack of market demand) or close factories. High labor costs also contribute to Germany's uncompetitiveness: a German auto worker earns 62 euros per hour, compared to 16 euros in Hungary. These factors have led Volkswagen to consider closing factories and laying off staff in Germany, while expanding operations elsewhere.

Volkswagen's plans have shocked many Germans, as the company is a source of national pride and a major employer (300,000 employees in Germany). However, a union agreement from 1944 prevents forced layoffs until 2029, making it difficult for Volkswagen to dismiss workers without union approval. The unions blame management for the company's financial struggles, while management points to external factors. Volkswagen is investing billions in expanding production in the US and China, mirroring moves by other German companies like BASF. Alongside rising energy costs, Germany also faces a severe shortage of skilled labor, which drives up wages and further increases production costs. Some politicians suggest increased immigration and allowing refugees to work to address this labor shortage. The video concludes by asking if Germany might eventually return to cheap Russian gas to regain its industrial competitiveness, questioning the feasibility under current political circumstances.