Summary
Highlights
The crisis began with a terror attack on Hindu tourists in the Beran Valley near Baham, Kashmir, on April 22nd. Gunmen executed 26 people. The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility, escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, who accuse each other of harboring terrorists.
India responded swiftly by closing border crossings, expelling diplomats, and suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical water-sharing agreement. This action raised serious concerns in Pakistan, as it relies heavily on the Indus River's water and views any disruption as a potential act of war.
Pakistan retaliated by closing its airspace to Indian airlines, suspending trade, and threatening military retaliation if India stops or diverts water. Troops from both sides exchanged fire across the Line of Control. Military assets are moving suggesting readiness for larger violence.
India is considering various retaliatory options, from covert operations to air strikes. The international community is largely uninvolved, and India seems poised to act decisively. A de-escalation is unlikely and there is the risk of misinterpretation causing escalation. Both countries have nukes so the situation is very delicate.
India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars since 1947. Both nations possess substantial and modernized militaries, including nuclear weapons. Any escalation carries the risk of a broader conflict, although a nuclear exchange is considered unlikely but not impossible.
India's Prime Minister Modi has been in conversation with many international leaders in order to gain tacit agreement to retaliate in response to this grave situation. India likely to launch the bare minimum airstrikes or more as Modi sees fit. How bad it gets remains to seen.