Summary
Highlights
The speaker begins by analyzing the price of gold (XAU/USD) from 2003 to the present. He identifies a parallel channel movement in gold prices between 2005 and 2011, noting the 2008 financial crisis as an outlier. After a significant downturn post-2011, gold entered a recovery phase from 2018 onwards.
The speaker projects gold to reach 6600-6700 within 34-35 weeks, around December 2027 or January 2028, based on technical analysis, specifically emphasizing a parabolic movement completed in the past. He notes that the current price is testing a support level and is expected to break upwards towards 5050 and then 6100.
The speaker highlights significant returns on silver, with ounce silver yielding 132% and gram silver 173% over 52 weeks, compared to gram gold's 67% and ounce gold's 42%. He suggests that gold has lagged behind silver and is now poised for a catch-up, especially gram gold due to its correlation with the US dollar.
Analyzing gold's performance against US Treasury bonds, he points out a historical peak in January, followed by a decline. However, he observes a positive divergence (RSI making higher lows while price makes lower lows), indicating an upcoming upward movement. He forecasts a target of 1150 against the bond market, correlating to a gold price of around 5050, correcting previous predictions.
Looking at an even longer-term chart, the speaker suggests gold could reach 10,000, 11,000, 12,000, or even 15,000 USD within 2-3 years. He cautions that investing in gold, like other assets such as land or real estate, requires patience and careful timing.
The speaker emphasizes that investing in gold is not simply about buying and holding. He refers to the period between 2011 and 2023-2024, where gold investors saw little to no profit in dollar terms, illustrating the importance of timing both purchases and sales.
He analyzes the gold-stock market correlation since 2003, noting a deviation during the pandemic due to massive injections into the stock market. Based on an 'inverted head and shoulders' pattern, he predicts the correlation metric to return to its average of 1.30-1.35. Assuming the stock market (BIST 100) drops to 11,500-12,500 due to inflation and energy prices, he projects gold's dollar value to be around 15,525, potentially reaching 45,000-50,000 in 20-25 years.
Finally, the speaker compares gold's performance against the US dollar. He notes that while dollar's value has increased, gold is expected to significantly outperform it in the long run. He projects that if the dollar reaches 150 TL in 4 years, gold's value in dollars could be around 42,000. He further calculates that if the dollar were to reach 60 TL, gold would be around 17,000, suggesting that extreme dollar increases are unlikely if gold performs as expected.