Summary
Highlights
James Sebenius introduces the '3D Negotiation' approach, which involves setup, deal design, and tactics. He clarifies that this program will focus primarily on the tactical dimension of negotiating directly with Vladimir Putin, drawing on the experiences of former U.S. Secretaries of State.
Robert Mnookin addresses the fundamental question: 'Should one negotiate with Putin?' He defines 'devil' in negotiations as someone untrustworthy and potentially evil, a category Putin fits. Mnookin suggests that while it's often unappealing, negotiating with such individuals can be necessary to serve core interests, emphasizing a disciplined cost-benefit analysis and the assessment of potential deals.
Colin Powell shares his experience negotiating with Putin regarding the ABM Treaty. Despite a seemingly pointless nine-month negotiation, Powell used the time to understand Putin's inner circle and demonstrate careful deliberation to allies. He highlights Putin's potential for adaptability, as seen when Putin turned on a dime to pursue a new treaty after the ABM treaty abrogation, suggesting Putin's actions are driven by Russian national pride.
Condoleezza Rice, a Russianist, notes Putin's respect for toughness and directness. She advises negotiators to be straightforward, challenge 'odd facts' Putin might present, and understand that overall U.S. credibility aids in negotiations. Rice also stresses the importance of thorough preparation, including consulting with local ambassadors and key figures in Putin's inner circle like Sergei Ivanov, to anticipate agendas and avoid wasting time.
Hillary Clinton discusses the challenge of negotiating with someone who dislikes you. She sought ways to gain insight into Putin, recalling his emotional response to her visit to the St. Petersburg Memorial and his deeply personal story about his father. Clinton also found common ground by complimenting Putin's efforts in wildlife conservation, revealing a less intimidating side of him. She emphasizes drawing clear lines, having a long-term strategy, and demonstrating strength, as Putin respects those who stand up to him.
John Kerry highlights the importance of understanding Putin's perceptions, even if they are factually incorrect, because for Putin, 'perception becomes reality.' Kerry recounts instances of cooperation with Russia on significant international agreements, such as the Iran Nuclear Agreement and the removal of chemical weapons from Syria, emphasizing that despite deep disagreements, cooperation is possible and often necessary. He advocates for a long-term strategy, not expecting a 'grand bargain' but rather a series of steps to change dynamics.
Rex Tillerson, with a long history of negotiating with Putin as a private citizen and Secretary of State, describes Putin as 'extraordinarily intelligent, very strategic,' and having an 'insatiable appetite for information.' He underscores that Putin respects strength and trustworthiness ('under-promise and over-deliver'). Tillerson notes Putin's deep-seated resentment and search for respect for Russia's role in the global order, warning that a failure to acknowledge this will lead Putin to take actions to assert Russia's importance.
James Sebenius summarizes the collective advice: develop an up-to-date profile of Putin (KGB heritage, nationalist, intelligent, strategic, adaptable yet suspicious). Consult with his inner circle and those on the ground. Expect a surly, menacing, and opaque counterpart who will deliver lengthy tirades and 'odd facts.' Key elements of an approach include making Putin feel respected, seeking commonality, demonstrating strength and credibility, being persistent with a long-term strategy, and ensuring enforceability of agreements. The program concludes by noting that negotiating with Putin will likely be a recurring necessity for the foreseeable future.