Summary
Highlights
The video concludes by emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between stock price movements and underlying business performance. While stocks can be influenced by momentum or retail trading, a strong business execution, as seen with Grab, Celsius, and Zeta Global, is key to long-term value. The example of PayPal is given, where the stock price declined despite the business performing better. Investors should not be fooled by stock charts alone but focus on the fundamentals.
The video focuses on retail investor trends in 2025, noting record inflows into long-term ETFs, high interest in AI-themed single stocks, and significant options trading activity. Goldman Sachs research shows index level volatility is low, but single stock earnings moves are highly volatile. The video introduces three retail-heavy names for discussion: Grab, Celsius, and Zeta Global.
Grab, a close to $21 billion company, operates in Southeast Asia, a region with rapidly growing GDP and a population of over 700 million. Grab offers a 'super app' model covering mobility, delivery, and fintech. Its success is attributed to localization, dominance in key markets (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), early entry, and strategic partnerships (like with Uber). Grab shows strong expected revenue growth (21-17% through 2027) and a shift to profitability. While the stock has seen drawdowns, the business is executing well, with increasing monthly transacting users and strong growth in its fintech and mobility segments. The stock has historically rebounded off its 200-day moving average.
Celsius, an energy drink company, has performed strongly this year (up 67%), recovering from a significant crash in 2024. The company is valued at approximately $11.5 billion with a gross margin of 52.4%. Its close relationship with PepsiCo and the acquisition of Alani Nu have boosted revenue significantly, though the majority of revenue still comes from North America. International expansion is a key focus for 2026. While gross margins are expected to face 'noisy' pressure in Q4 due to integration, they are projected to rebound to the low 50s by late 2026. Celsius authorized a $300 million share buyback program. The stock has been testing its 200-day moving average repeatedly.
Zeta Global has seen a 10% year-to-date increase, with recent unexplained jumps. The company is seen as undervalued and a potential acquisition target. Expected revenue growth is strong (34% in 2026, 11% in 2027), with operating margins projected to grow from 15% to 19%. Free cash flow is expected to outpace revenue growth. Zeta Global has a track record of 17 consecutive 'beat and raise' quarters, with impressive increases in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. Their AI agent, Attina, is set to launch in Q1 2026, and a recent acquisition of Marold for Enterprise will expand their customer base and data cloud. The outlook for 2026 includes 21% organic revenue growth and healthy adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow margins.