Summary
Highlights
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Zelenskyy sign a major defense deal, enabling joint weapons production and storage of Ukrainian drones on EU soil. This multi-billion euro deal prioritizes drone production, utilizing Ukrainian expertise and European funding to significantly enhance defense cooperation. The agreement also allows for the storage of Ukrainian drones on EU territory, providing a safe haven from Russian attacks. Nine European drone companies, including Poland's WB Group, are set to meet with Ukrainian producers in September to finalize collaboration details, with a broader missile deal also under discussion.
Serhiy Kitay-Gorodsky, CEO of Ukraine's largest state oil and gas company, is poised to become the next Prime Minister, highly praised by President Zelenskyy for his management of the energy sector during winter. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is reportedly dismissed, despite his popularity and significant contributions to Ukraine's battlefield management system, Delta. This change comes after public clashes with Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi over strategy and procurement. The interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, will replace Fedorov as defense minister, with Ivan Vyhivsky promoted to interior minister.
Lithuania's president warns of potential Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, leading to increased security measures around key sites. Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski suggests Russia might stage false-flag operations to provoke NATO. Experts believe Russian hybrid attacks aim to undermine public trust and target vulnerable state functions. Poland strengthens its eastern border defense with a new dedicated unit and scrambles jets to intercept Russian fighter planes spying on air defense exercises, highlighting ongoing tensions with Russia.
EU ambassadors temporarily stall an automatic rise in the price cap on Russian oil until July 23rd, preventing a financial boost for Moscow. However, a broader 21st sanctions package against Russia remains blocked due to Greece's opposition to banning maritime services for Russian LNG and Austria's demand for a legal solution regarding Raiffeisen Bank's seized assets. While most of the package has been agreed upon, unanimity among member states remains elusive, with negotiations expected to continue.
Poland's largest opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), is battling for votes, including from far-right groups. PiS candidate for prime minister, Przemysław Czarnek, sparked controversy with anti-Ukrainian comments, advocating for halting EU funding for arms and reconstruction until Ukraine aligns with "pro-human values." This statement contradicts PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński's stance on military assistance to Ukraine, causing internal party conflict and rumors of Czarnek's potential replacement. The move is seen as an attempt to mimic the growing support for far-right parties like the Confederation, despite the potential complications of forming a coalition with extremist groups.
Hannah Notte from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies discusses the EU-Ukraine defense deal as a natural progression of existing drone cooperation, noting Ukraine's advanced capabilities. She highlights Russia's likely displeasure, particularly with the institutional anchoring and potential storage of drones on EU territory. Notte assesses the risk of Russian escalation, emphasizing hybrid actions like sabotage and cyberattacks. She also discusses Donald Trump's impact on Russia's strategy, suggesting that while Trump's rhetoric pleased the Kremlin, his administration has not delivered a favorable deal for Russia, forcing Moscow to consider other, riskier escalation options in Ukraine.