Is the weather actually becoming more extreme? - R. Saravanan

From 2016 to 2019, record-breaking heat waves, rampant wildfires, and the longest run of Category 5 tropical cyclones on record were observed globally. The number of extreme weather events has been increasing for the last 40 years, and this trend is predicted to continue. This raises the question of whether these are simply bad weather or due to a changing climate.

Weather is defined as the atmospheric conditions at a particular time and place, predictable with about 80% accuracy for up to a week. Climate describes a region's average atmospheric conditions over longer periods (a month or more) and can forecast average temperatures decades into the future, but not specific weather events.

Weather forecasts rely on measuring initial atmospheric conditions (precipitation, air pressure, humidity, wind) using instruments called radiosondes released by balloons globally. This data is fed into predictive physics models. However, weather is a chaotic system, making perfect and long-term predictions impossible beyond two weeks due to its sensitivity to even small disturbances.

Climate prediction is less turbulent because climate is the average of weather data and focuses on the range of what could happen, rather than current atmospheric conditions. It uses boundary conditions, like solar radiation, which are well-defined and change slowly, allowing for reliable long-term forecasts.

Even slight changes in boundary conditions, such as a 1-degree Celsius increase in Earth's surface temperature over the past 150 years, represent a massive shift for the chaotic weather system. This seemingly minor warming has added immense energy to the atmosphere, leading to dramatic increases in heatwaves, droughts, and storm surges. While weather remains chaotic, climate shifts increase the likelihood of extreme weather events.

Scientists largely agree that human activity is accelerating climate change. By tracking shifts in boundary conditions, we can identify which human behaviors are most impacting the climate. Understanding this allows us to work towards protecting the climate for future centuries, even if immediate weather remains unpredictable.