Summary
Highlights
The discussion begins with the impact of tariffs, initiated earlier in the year, on overall buyer confidence in the GTA market. Tariffs, although primarily affecting the US, created a 'scary factor' in Canada, leading to job losses and a decrease in buyer confidence. The Canadian government is trying to mitigate this by expanding exports beyond the US, attracting billions in investments, and fostering a more positive long-term outlook.
The panel discusses the recent reduction in permanent resident and student visas by IRCC. While acknowledging it as a negative for the government historically, it's seen as a positive step for Canadians, providing a 'breather' for housing planning. The reduction in new arrivals is expected to alleviate pressure on the housing market, leading to a potential decrease in rental values, especially in downtown core areas, offering more options and leverage for renters.
The Bank of Canada's decision to keep interest rates steady for the third consecutive announcement is viewed positively, signaling a balanced market and potentially reaching the bottom of the rate cycle. However, the rise in 'power of sales' is a significant concern. Homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates in 2021-2022 are now facing renewals at much higher rates (3.5% to 4.5%), leading to an uptick in properties being sold due to inability to pay.
A market update for November 2025 shows median price changes compared to the previous year. Stouffville in York Region saw a 4% gain, while Halton Hills was flat. Other areas like King, Georgina, and Mississauga experienced slight decreases. The top five losses were significant, with Scugog falling 30%, Uxbridge 26%, Brock 16%, Richmond Hill 14%, and Vaughan 13%.
The segment highlights several unique property listings. These include a prime mixed-use asset in The Junction Triangle ideal for live-work, a Mariam-built detached home in Kitchener's Doon South, a high-visibility 10-acre highway property in Hamilton with development potential, and a stunning three-bedroom townhouse in the Lake Breeze community near Lake Ontario.
Interviews with people in downtown Toronto reveal diverse perspectives on renting versus owning. An interviewee who owns emphasizes the financial benefit of property value appreciation despite high mortgage payments. Another individual who rents at $2,300/month finds it manageable but dreams of owning, acknowledging the challenge without parental support. Others, living with parents, are saving up and hope to buy property, possibly outside of central Toronto, in the next decade.
The hosts address audience questions. Regarding flipping in the GTA, they state it's difficult for cosmetic changes but possible for structural renovations like adding a garden suite or basement. For first-time homebuyers seeking properties under $500K in the GTA, detached homes are unlikely, but condo townhouses in suburbs like Hamilton or specific areas in Durham Region (Ajax, Oshawa) and Scarborough offer better value, focusing on areas with accessibility and job proximity.
The market forecast indicates that December is traditionally the slowest period, attracting only serious buyers and sellers. An unexpected high level of activity has been observed, with open houses seeing significant attendance. Two scenarios are predicted for 2025: a price adjustment if sales don't keep up with increased inventory and power of sales, or hitting the market bottom if sales activity picks up. Historically, the GTA market doesn't remain stagnant for long. Currently, buyers with stable financing have strong negotiating power due to increased inventory from mortgage renewals.