Summary
Highlights
Josh from Cyclones Oz introduces a complicated and rainy weather system for southern and southeastern Australia, urging viewers to subscribe and consider the 'Frontline' subscription service for advanced weather warnings and detailed forecasts. He highlights ongoing warnings for South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, Western Australia, and potentially Queensland.
The current satellite picture shows tropical moisture bringing light rainfall to Western and South Australia. A cold front is moving away from New South Wales, replaced by high pressure bringing calm conditions to Victoria and South Australia for the next 24-36 hours. A small cold front will bring heavy rain to southwestern WA, including Perth. Southeasterly flow in Queensland is causing patchy showers.
The synoptic overlay reveals a large weather system with high pressure in southeastern Australia. A low-pressure system is forming with a trough extending to Tasmania, creating interesting contrasts with both a cold front and a rare warm front. The warm front will bring warm air to South Australia, New South Wales, and Victoria, while cooler air on the southern side of the low will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to WA's Nullarbor and southern coastline.
As the forecast progresses, the warm and cold fronts become more prominent. A band of moderate rainfall will move through central South Australia on Tuesday, reaching the Eyre Peninsula. Southern WA and the Nullarbor regions will see showers and embedded thunderstorms. Southeastern mainland Australia stays dry until Wednesday afternoon when the cold front pushes through, bringing widespread rainfall to Adelaide, western New South Wales, and western Victoria. The low-pressure system is expected to be strong (997 hPa), potentially causing brief severe weather along the South Australian coastline before weakening over Victoria and Tasmania.
A wet picture is expected for South Australia and southeastern Australia over the next 5-6 days. South Australia could see falls up to 100mm in some spots, with 40-70mm expected across the Eyre and York Peninsulas, Kangaroo Island, and Adelaide metro. Adelaide Hills might exceed 100mm, leading to potential flooding. Southeastern South Australia and Western Victoria will also see significant rain (around 50mm). Most of Victoria can expect 15-50mm, with Melbourne receiving 10-25mm. Western New South Wales will see at least 10mm, while eastern New South Wales remains drier. Tasmania is expected to receive at least 20mm, with some northwestern areas nearing 100mm. Eastern WA, especially the Nullarbor coast, will see around 50mm, with Esperance and Cape Arid potentially getting 100mm.
Queensland's forecast is complex due to a belt of tropical moisture ahead of the main cold front. This moisture at 700 hPa (3km above surface) will generate widespread rainfall in northern South Australia. Cold fronts act as forcing mechanisms, pushing air upwards to create rain and thunderstorms ahead of the front. This will bring rainfall to Western Queensland, parts of the Northern Territory, and northwestern New South Wales from Thursday morning into Friday, with up to 25-50mm in patchy areas. Mount Isa and areas along Queensland's western peripheries are likely to see the best coverage. Southeastern Queensland's coast will experience warmer temperatures and clearer skies mid-week, with minimal and patchy coastal showers expected Thursday and Friday.
Winds shift north through Friday and Saturday for Queensland, bringing more humidity. By next weekend, remnants of the cold front will bring light rain to inland southeastern Queensland, followed by a significant cool down. Forecast models also suggest a significant period of shower and thunderstorm activity for the eastern seaboard towards the end of June. In Western Australia, a slow-moving cold front will bring prolonged moderate rainfall to the southwestern land divisions, including Perth (15-30mm, isolated 40-50mm) throughout the afternoon and evening. Showers will extend north along the WA coastline to Carnarvon. High pressure reestablishes quickly, bringing fine and cold conditions to Western Australia, with very cold mornings expected from Tuesday to Friday, especially in the Perth metro and wheat belt regions.
The weather forecast remains complicated with many moving parts, but a very wet picture is expected across Australia's southern coastline for the next week. Rainfall is anticipated for most of Queensland, south and southeastern Australia, and parts of Western Australia, making it a widespread event for this time of year. The presenter encourages viewers to like and subscribe for more updates.