Summary
Highlights
Reviewing three possible Bitcoin cycle outcomes: the early cycle scenario (base case), the normal cycle scenario, and the double top scenario. The current portfolio is constructed with a cash position, altcoin exposure, and a significant Bitcoin holding to navigate these possibilities.
Discussing the potential depth of the current Bitcoin correction, with a focus on the CME gap at 92K as a possible target. Also, analysis on profit-taking trends in on-chain data and ETF flows.
Explaining why the current market pullback isn't comparable to 2021's market environment. There's also a cautionary note on corporate Bitcoin treasuries and their potential vulnerability in a bear market.
Bitcoin is holding its range amid positive developments in the market, and rising global liquidity suggests the cycle isn't over. Analysis of the US dollar index, interest rate cuts, unemployment, and the Fed's balance sheet. There are five US states enacting crypto laws.
Ethereum's struggle to break above 2,800 and its consolidation phase. The remarkable inflows into Ethereum ETFs are considered in relation to tokenized funds. Salona's poor performance metrics are discussed.