Summary
Highlights
The Couch Investing portfolio was up 1.14% last week, while the S&P 500 was up 1.74%. Year-to-date, the portfolio is up 66.2% and since inception, 165.38%. The video then outlines key company earnings reports for the upcoming week, including Coca-Cola, Netflix, Tesla, Intel, and others, indicating potential live stream coverage for pre-market reports.
Gavin Baker suggests the federal deficit is improving. Analysis of the S&P 500 after specific market events, such as a 2.5% fall after an all-time high or closing below the 20-day moving average, generally indicates favorable odds for recovery. Historically, bull markets last longer and generate higher returns (5.3 years, 254% average gain) compared to bear markets (1 year, 31% average loss), reinforcing a stay-invested approach.
Crude oil prices are at a low not seen since March 2021, which could help with inflation but also signal reduced demand. The presenter argues that the current market is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble. Today's tech companies, like Nvidia and Microsoft, are highly profitable and generating real value, unlike the speculative ventures of the past. The rapid adoption of AI and the existence of highly profitable trillion-dollar companies to fund innovation differentiate the current landscape.
The presenter added to two positions: SoFi and Nubus, expressing continued bullishness on these companies. He also noted additions to Rubric, Oscar, and Shift4 opportunistically. The video touches on the risks and performance of options plays, particularly Nphase, Pagaya, and PayPal, highlighting the volatility but also the long-term potential in solid companies despite short-term dips.
Mercado Libre, held in the presenter's retirement portfolio, is highlighted as an excellent company with strong revenue and EPS growth (CAGR close to 40% over the last 3 years). Despite concerns about the Argentinian economy and increased competition from Amazon and other players, Mercado Libre maintains its leadership in app traffic and engagement based on monthly active users and daily-to-monthly active user ratios. The stock has historically rebounded well from drawdowns, respecting its uptrend line.
Oracle unveiled astonishing projections for its Oracle Cloud, aiming for $166 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2030 (a 75% 5-year CAGR), a significant jump from $10 billion in fiscal year 2025. Oracle's total business is projected to reach $225 billion with EPS growing from $6.82 to nearly $20 by fiscal 2030. These ambitious targets, if realized, suggest Oracle is currently undervalued, driving a massive buildout in AI infrastructure that benefits construction and contributes to GDP growth.
The presenter reaffirms confidence in his portfolio, despite some positions taking a hit. He acknowledges a past mistake with an oversized initial investment in Duolingo but remains committed to adding to promising companies like Oscar, Rubric, Shift4, Dolingo, SoFi, and Nubus especially during earnings season volatility. The overarching message is to invest in great companies and avoid panic during red days, as history suggests bull markets are more prevalent and rewarding.