Summary
Highlights
The speaker opens the session, mentioning March 14th (White Day in Korea). He plans to discuss the next week's stock market direction, following last week's topic on active ETFs. The US stock market, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, saw a slight decline yesterday, despite an initial rise. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, however, rose slightly, possibly due to the GTC conference. Rising oil prices, with WTI at $98.71 and Brent crude over $100, are a major concern, exacerbating inflation and potentially benefiting Russia.
The deepening conflict between the US and Iran, coupled with a significant drop in US Q4 GDP to 0.7% (forecasted 1.4%) and 4.4% in the previous quarter, raises fears of stagflation. The US military's deployment of 2,200 Marines to the Middle East suggests a potential long-term conflict, possibly extending into April. Iran's threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil trafficking route, could further drive up oil prices. Iran has also declared major US tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia as targets, potentially escalating cyber warfare and increasing demand for robust cybersecurity solutions.
The KOSPI is currently directionless, while the KOSDAQ shows some positive signs. KOSPI is heavily influenced by exchange rates and oil prices, affecting large caps like Hyundai Motors. The Korean won recently touched 1,497 against the dollar, with a peak of 1,505. The speaker advises keeping an eye on Samsung Electronics' direction for KOSPI movements. He suggests a potential dip to 2,500 points on the KOSPI to liquidate margin loans, creating a good buying opportunity. Investors should look for opportunities when the market stabilizes after such a potential correction.
Next week, Nvidia's GTC conference will reveal details on its next-generation Rubin architecture, possibly integrating HBM4 6th generation memory, which could impact Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. AMD CEO Lisa Su's visit to Korea to meet Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong focuses on securing HBM4 supply. This meeting could also lead to an AMD-Samsung foundry partnership, challenging the Nvidia-TSMC alliance. Additionally, discussions around a Samsung-Naver-AMD alliance for 'Sovereign AI' could emerge, combining AMD's GPUs with Samsung's memory for affordable AI packages, reducing reliance on Nvidia.
The US-Korea strategic investment special act has passed, allocating $1.5 billion towards shipbuilding and $200 million to strategic industries like semiconductors, batteries, and nuclear power. This indicates potential growth for Korean shipbuilders, which have recently seen a slight correction. Furthermore, with geopolitical tensions, cybersecurity (especially quantum encryption) is highlighted as a crucial and upcoming investment area. The speaker also notes the rise of 5G/6G related stocks due to Nvidia's optical communication discussions and emphasizes the growing importance of renewable energy sectors like solar (HD Hyundai Energy Solutions) and wind power (SK E&S) due to rising oil prices. He advises holding cash for potential market corrections and suggests looking into select shipbuilding and nuclear power stocks.