Summary
Highlights
The speaker outlines several stocks he is considering selling in 2026, or at least a portion of them. TSLZ will likely be sold in the first half of 2026 as it's a short-term hedge. CRM might be sold if it experiences a significant run, especially if attractive alternative investment opportunities arise. Honest Co. is a potential sell if the company is acquired, as the current CEO has positioned it well for this. Google could be sold if it has another big run, as the speaker is less confident in its long-term potential compared to Meta, especially regarding the profitability of the robo-taxi business. AMD shares might be partially sold if the stock goes above $500 due to a major hype cycle, but a full sell-off is unlikely.
The speaker expresses his intention to hold onto stocks like SoFi (unless it becomes severely overvalued), Celsius, K, Palantir (maintaining a core position), Estée Lauder, Amazon, and Meta. He highlights Meta's strong fundamentals and CEO Mark Zuckerberg's willingness to make bold decisions as reasons for his confidence. For the overall market in 2026, he anticipates a single-digit return, around 6%, due to potentially limited upside after a positive 2025. He also states that he would welcome a down year in the market as a buyer.
Tom Lee and Steph from CNBC discuss their market predictions for 2026. Lee expects a double-digit year, anticipating volatility in the first half due to potential political events, a new Fed chair, and a dovish Fed stimulating GDP growth. Steph agrees, citing strong economic data, loan growth, and industrial metals at all-time highs, with low teens earnings growth expected. She suggests financials will be sector leaders due to deregulation and capital returns. Chris Harvey, however, notes high single-digit growth is more reasonable and warns against underestimating macro risks and increasing volatility. He believes the market is complacent about risks and overpriced, highlighting the high beta index's performance.
The speaker expresses concern over the widespread bullishness among Wall Street strategists for 2026, noting that similar predictions in 2023 were dramatically too bearish. He suggests this consensus bullishness could lead to limited upside or significant downside if things go wrong. The conversation turns to the AI trade, with Dambosa highlighting Google's growing market share in AI against OpenAI and its challenge to Nvidia with custom AI chips. A debate between Google's Demis Hassabis and Meta's Yan LeCun regarding the path to general AI is also discussed, posing the central question of whether current AI spending is justified or premature.
Chris Harvey dismisses concerns about a tech bubble, pointing to the healthier credit markets and the commercial aspects of tech. The speaker explains that Oracle's issues stem from its poor balance sheet and uncertain margins for new ventures. The discussion moves to dispersion among tech stocks; while some, like Alphabet and Nvidia, have seen significant gains, others like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are underperforming. The speaker attributes Nvidia's potential future underperformance to two main factors: potential flatlining of capex budgets from big tech in 2027, which would heavily impact Nvidia, and AMD's new competitive product entering the market in mid-to-late 2026, potentially diverting spending from Nvidia and leading to margin compression. He concludes that not all stocks will trade in a basket, and individual performance will vary based on fundamentals and market sentiment.