Predictive Validity of Early and Mid-Year Literacy Assessments for End-of-Year Word Reading Fluency in Arabic-Speaking Students

Learning to read involves developing skills to understand written language by connecting symbols to sounds. Foundational literacy skills such as phonemic awareness and alphabetic knowledge are crucial for early decoding and overall reading success. These skills, including letter-sound relationships and phonemic awareness, are strong predictors of future reading achievement. Letter Naming Fluency (LNF), Letter Sound Fluency (LSF), and Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF) are recognized as reliable indicators of reading readiness and are integral for identifying students needing targeted interventions.

Proficient word reading, characterized by accurate and rapid decoding, is a prerequisite for complex reading and comprehension. While early assessments have been studied, this research emphasizes the evolving predictive accuracy of LNF, LSF, and PSF over time, particularly the value of mid-year data for earlier identification and intervention. The study addresses a gap in Arabic literacy research by comprehensively assessing multiple early literacy components and evaluating how sequential assessments refine predictions, aiming to support real-time educational decision-making.

The study included 412 Arabic-speaking kindergarten and first-grade students from Saudi Arabia, with an equal gender and grade distribution. Researchers developed custom CBM materials for LNF, LSF, PSF, and WRF, ensuring content relevance to the Saudi Arabian curriculum. These assessments, administered by trained educators, demonstrated high reliability. Ethical approval was obtained, and parental consent secured. Data were collected at three points (fall, mid-year, year-end) using individual assessments. Analysis involved descriptive statistics, multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression, and accuracy analysis to identify at-risk students, utilizing JASP software.

Both Letter Naming Fluency (LNF) and Letter Sound Fluency (LSF) consistently emerged as significant predictors of end-of-year Word Reading Fluency (WRF) for both kindergarten and first-grade students. Mid-year LNF, especially for kindergarten, showed a strong unique predictive contribution. Fall and mid-year LSF also proved to be strong unique predictors of WRF for both grade levels. The consistent predictive power of LNF and LSF across assessment points highlights their crucial role in early literacy development and identifying students' word reading skills.

In contrast to LNF and LSF, Phoneme Segmentation Fluency (PSF) did not significantly contribute to the prediction of end-of-year Word Reading Fluency for either grade at any assessment point. While other studies often emphasize the importance of phonemic awareness, this research found a limited predictive value for PSF in this context, especially when compared to the stronger contributions of letter fluency measures. This suggests that the timing of assessment and the specific measure used for phonemic awareness might influence its predictive utility for WRF.

Mid-year assessments exhibited significantly higher predictive power for end-of-year Word Reading Fluency (WRF) compared to fall assessments. For kindergarten, mid-year assessments explained 72% of WRF variance, a 34% improvement over fall. In grade 1, mid-year assessments accounted for over 87% of variance, a 36% increase from fall. This enhanced accuracy at mid-year underscores the cumulative benefits of literacy instruction and the integration of phonological and orthographic knowledge over time, making mid-year data more valuable for capturing the progression of literacy skills.

The study found that mid-year assessments were more reliable in identifying students at risk for reading failure. For kindergarten, mid-year LNF correctly identified 64% of at-risk students, a significant improvement from 45% in the fall. Mid-year LSF also showed better accuracy (60% vs. 55%). In grade 1, mid-year LSF achieved the highest accuracy at 73%. While PSF was generally less accurate, its predictive ability improved from fall to mid-year. These findings suggest prioritizing mid-year LNF and LSF assessments for more effective literacy screenings and interventions.

The study's findings emphasize the importance of multi-point literacy assessments, especially mid-year LNF and LSF, for identifying at-risk Arabic-speaking students and implementing timely interventions. This supports dynamic curriculum-based measurement (CBM) and data-driven instruction. Educational institutions should integrate such assessments, providing resources and teacher training. However, limitations include assessment timing (end of semester), a short-term follow-up period, and a potentially limited scope of PSF, suggesting that other phonemic measures might offer stronger predictive power.