Summary
Highlights
Stefan Burns discusses a recent surge in earthquake activity along the Ring of Fire, particularly in the Western Pacific, coinciding with changes in solar activity. He notes two magnitude 6 earthquakes south of Australia and a magnitude 6.9 in Chile. Burns explains a paradox where earthquake activity sometimes increases with decreasing solar activity, but also during periods of increased solar activity, citing the 2025 magnitude 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake during a solar maximum. He attributes the current rise in earthquake probability to solar activity nearing a minimum and the Glyceberg cycle, an 85-100 year solar rhythm associated with more earthquakes.
Burns examines the USGS latest earthquakes map, highlighting two magnitude 6.0 earthquakes south of Tasmania. He notes rising sunspot numbers in May, exceeding averages from previous months. He also details an S1 proton radiation storm triggered by a far-side solar explosion, emphasizing the connection between radiation storms and stronger earthquakes. A large sunspot rotating into view is expected to be Earth-facing in 6-7 days, increasing the risk of solar activity. Burns discusses X-ray flux, noting a correlation between lower flux and large earthquakes, but also that charged ionosphere from solar flares can precede major quakes.
Burns analyzes planetary geometry for June 1st, 2026, using a heliocentric true sky chart, which is relevant for space weather forecasting. He points out significant alignments, including a trine between Pluto and Uranus (with Ceres), and Neptune, Saturn, and Jupiter. Earth is involved in a critical configuration, including an opposition to Uranus (and Ceres) and squares to Mercury and Venus. These alignments suggest a propensity for significant solar and space weather activity around this time, especially when combined with the Earth-facing sunspot.
As solar activity declines towards the solar minimum (around 2029-2031), Burns anticipates increasing earthquake activity. He reviews global earthquake data since January 2024 for magnitudes 6.5 and greater, showing extensive activity in the Western Pacific, including a magnitude 8.8 in Kamchatka. He highlights areas where the Pacific plate movement is not fully accommodated, making them overdue for significant ruptures: southern South America (despite recent quakes in the northern part), Papau New Guinea (lacking magnitude 7s), New Zealand (especially the Alpine fault), the Aleutian Islands, and California along the San Andreas fault system. Mexico is also mentioned as partially accommodating stress but still vulnerable to larger quakes like those seen in 2017.
Burns observes that seismic activity has been increasing, with Japan experiencing a 7.5 earthquake in April 2026. He notes that while 2025 saw a global burst of seismicity, including the 8.8 Kamchatka quake, subsequent earthquakes have been of lesser magnitude. He states that typically there is one magnitude 8 earthquake per year, and due to a period of fewer magnitude 8s, more mega-quakes are statistically overdue. Burns revisits solar cycle progression, emphasizing that Solar Cycle 25 is stronger than the abnormally weak Solar Cycle 24, but the overall sunspot count indicates being near the bottom of a Glyceberg cycle, which correlates with higher earthquake probability.
Burns reiterates that specific regions like southern South America, Baja California, British Columbia, the Aleutian Islands, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand are awaiting their equivalent seismic movements compared to other parts of the Pacific Rim. He mentions a deep magnitude 6 earthquake in Italy, contrasting it with the focus on the Pacific plate. Burns explains that increasing movement in active areas puts more pressure on stuck locations, and solar/planetary alignments can act as triggers for these overdue ruptures. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of monitoring the newly Earth-facing sunspot and planetary geometry for potential solar activity around June 1st.