It’s Time To Sell America

The market is currently experiencing a sell-off, particularly impacting top American tech companies. Analysts are calling this the "Sell America" trade, fueled by President Trump's rhetoric regarding Greenland and the escalating trade tensions. This has led to fears of a trade war and allies potentially dumping US assets, with Ray Dalio highlighting the ongoing shift in global order. Despite these concerns, the speaker advocates for buying American stocks, viewing the current sell-off as a buying opportunity given past market recoveries from similar anxieties.

The speaker's portfolio is down due to the current market conditions, with global monopolistic companies and big tech holdings taking a hit. Despite this, he maintains his belief that America is the best place to invest, highlighting the abundance of great companies. He emphasizes that political rhetoric and short-term news like tariffs are temporary and do not fundamentally alter the long-term prospects of strong companies. He considers current dips as entry points for buying more into companies like Amazon, Google, and Mastercard, which he believes offer long-term alpha.

The speaker recently bought an additional $5,000 worth of Duolingo, despite it being his biggest loser, down 50-60% from his initial purchase. The stock's decline is attributed to decelerated booking growth (22% vs. 27% expected), leading to a severe market reaction. However, the speaker argues that the sell-off is an overcorrection, as Duolingo's fundamentals (40% revenue growth, 46% subscription revenue growth, 35% daily active users growth, and strong free cash flow) remain robust. He sees this as an opportunity to buy more of a fundamentally strong company being unfairly punished by the market.

Netflix is reporting earnings, but the excitement is overshadowed by the pending acquisition of Warner Bros. Netflix's core business shows strong performance with 17% revenue growth, consistent subscriber growth, and significant operating leverage due to flat content spending. The acquisition deal is transitioning from part cash/part equity to an all-cash transaction, valued at $27.75 per Warner Bros. Discovery share, aimed at simplifying and accelerating the deal closure by April 2026. The Q&A section of the earnings call is expected to provide more insight into the deal.

Andy Jassy of Amazon discusses AI's impact on jobs, admitting that AI will automate many current tasks, leading to a need for fewer people in some roles. However, he also emphasizes that AI will create new jobs and allow for greater innovation and efficiency, similar to past technological transformations. Joel Kaplan of Meta reiterates their ambition to build "personal super intelligence," making highly intelligent personalized assistants available to everyone. The speaker notes that other big tech companies like Google and Apple share similar goals, and even if full 'super intelligence' isn't achieved, the computational power invested will still improve existing services and ad efficiency.

Chris Hohn of TCI Fund Management made an unprecedented $18.9 billion profit for clients in 2025, topping all previous hedge fund records. His success is attributed to long-standing, concentrated bets on aerospace companies like GE Aerospace, Saffron, and Airbus, which benefited from increased military spending. Hohn's strategy involves avoiding AI hype, maintaining a concentrated portfolio for outperformance, and holding companies for extended periods, allowing investment stories to unfold. His consistent market-crushing performance is highlighted as truly exceptional.

The "fail of the week" comes from Mr. Beast Games, where a contestant named Joseph took a guaranteed $1 million to eliminate his team of five people, shocking and angering his teammates. The speaker argues that Joseph made the logical and correct decision, as a million dollars for eliminating people he barely knew from a game show is a no-brainer. He criticizes the moral outrage and guilt-tripping from the eliminated contestants, suggesting that such a decision in a game show context is purely self-interested and should be expected without judgment.