The Arab leaders are in a bind over Israel

In the 2000s, Arab states' focus shifted due to regional instability (Iraq War, Arab Spring, civil wars in Syria and Yemen). Iran exploited this by funding proxy militias, threatening Israel and Gulf Arab states. Many Arab states began to view Iran as a greater concern than Israel, despite Israel's treatment of Palestinians. The Palestinian cause became less of a priority for some Arab governments.

On October 7th, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. Unlike 1973, when Arab states united against Israel, in 2023, no Arab armies intervened. While some voice support for Hamas, others, like the UAE, condemned the attack as a serious escalation. Arab governments remain divided, but their populations demand greater action against Israel, making these governments anxious.

In 1947, the UN proposed partitioning the region into Jewish and Palestinian Arab states. Israel accepted, but Palestinians and a coalition of Arab states rejected the deal and declared war. Arab countries viewed the establishment of Israel as another form of European colonialism. After months of fighting, Israel gained significant territory, leaving only the West Bank and Gaza Strip under Arab control.

Following another war 20 years later where Israel gained more land, the Arab League made a pact: no peace, recognition, or negotiations with Israel until land was returned to Palestinians. This stance was challenged in 1973 when Egypt, suffering casualties and economic hardship, broke ranks during the Yom Kippur War.

Egyptian President Anwar Sadat met with Israeli and US leaders, recognizing Israel in exchange for the Sinai Peninsula. While he addressed future Palestinian negotiations, no land was returned to Palestinians directly. This deal, incentivized by the US, made Egypt the first Arab state to recognize Israel but was widely seen as a betrayal by other Arabs, leading to protests and Sadat's assassination.

By the 1970s and 80s, Arab armies largely stayed out of direct conflict with Israel, shifting the fighting to newly formed Palestinian and Lebanese militia groups like Hamas. Iran's 1979 revolution brought an Islamic regime hostile to Israel and the US, financially and militarily supporting anti-Israel militias. This created a new dynamic, as Iran, a Shia Muslim nation, also became a rival to Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia.

The 1993 Oslo Accord saw Israel recognize a Palestinian government, leading Jordan to sign a peace treaty and become the second Arab state to recognize Israel. However, like Egypt's deal, it did not return Palestinian land, sparking protests among Jordanian citizens. Despite this, most Arab governments supported Jordan's move, signaling a shift towards diplomacy.

In 2020, Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco, and Sudan recognized Israel through the US-brokered Abraham Accords, seeking trade and military cooperation, primarily against Iran. While Israel paused West Bank expansions, the Palestinian conflict remained unresolved. These deals were unpopular with Arab citizens, leading to protests that their governments largely ignored.

By 2022, Saudi Arabia was negotiating its own deal with Israel, which would have granted it military protection and nuclear technology in exchange for recognizing Israel, likely without a full Palestinian state. Hamas saw this as a threat to a future Palestinian state and launched its October 2023 attack to hurt Israel, rally Arab public support, and pressure Arab governments. This has put Arab governments in a difficult position, caught between their people's demands for action and their own strategic interests in maintaining ties with Israel and the US, particularly against the threat from Iran.