Analysing 86% Poll in Assam | Himanta to Get 2/3rd Majority? | UDF to Lose Kerala Game?

The video starts by highlighting the surprisingly high voter turnout in Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry, which has surprised pollsters. Specifically, Assam saw an increase from 82.04% to 85.74%, Kerala from 74% to 78.26%, and Puducherry reached almost 90%.

The speaker attributes Kerala's increased voter turnout primarily to the cleaning of the electoral rolls (SIR). He explains this using a fraction analogy, where a reduced denominator (fewer invalid voters) leads to a higher percentage. He notes that the increase is consistent across most areas, making it difficult to draw conclusions about political shifts solely based on the turnout percentage. Further ground reports are needed for a comprehensive understanding.

Puducherry also experienced a significant increase in voter turnout, reaching nearly 90%. The speaker briefly touches on Puducherry's small and geographically spread-out constituencies, with districts like Puducherry, Karaikal, and Mahe being considerable distances apart. He refrains from making strong predictions for Puducherry due to these unique electoral dynamics.

The analysis then shifts to Assam, which is described as particularly interesting. Two major developments since 2021 are highlighted: a delimitation exercise reduced Muslim-majority constituencies from over 30 to 23, impacting Congress and AUDF. The 3.7% increase in voter turnout in Assam is seen as favoring Himanta Biswa Sarma and the BJP alliance. This increase is observed to be more significant in Hindu-dominated areas rather than Muslim ones, where voting was already saturated.

The speaker suggests that the Muslim community already has high organizational capacity for voter mobilization, leading to saturated voting. The increased turnout from Hindu areas indicates a strong counter-mobilization. This, combined with the delimitation, leads to a prediction that the BJP alliance could secure around 92 seats or even more, out of 103 available seats for them (excluding 23 seats where they are unlikely to win). This suggests a potential two-thirds majority for Himanta Biswa Sarma.

The initial analysis suggests a strong performance for the BJP in Assam due to the high turnout and the effects of delimitation, which was easier to analyze without an electoral roll cleaning like Kerala's. For Kerala, while opinion polls indicated a close contest between UDF and LDF, the actual outcome remains to be seen, as the high turnout's impact on individual alliances needs further detailed analysis.