Summary
Highlights
The speaker lowered the buy band for Hyundai and Mobis, previously set at 600,000 won, due to rapid price drops. The current market condition suggests that the appeal of automotive stocks has slightly decreased compared to last week. Automotive stocks, including those related to robotics like Boston Dynamics, are best approached when their prices are significantly down, and they move based on upcoming events. Hyundai and similar companies may face increased short-selling pressure due to supply-demand dynamics. New purchases for Hyundai are suggested for the last week of June, considering the intensity of the price movement and the large deviation from the 5-week moving average. The market's focus is currently shifting to top-tier stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, reducing attention on Hyundai for now.
Shipbuilding stocks gained attention due to a new special bill for US-Korea investment, with shipbuilding and nuclear power being top priorities. Despite strong performance from companies like HD Hyundai with LNG and FPSO vessel orders, the main momentum for stock movement comes from factors like the Mars project. The delay in the US 'Mars' project is due to debates in the US Congress regarding the domestic construction of warships. However, Korean companies like Hanwha Ocean acquiring US shipyards like Philly Shipyard are working towards building ships in the US. Recent poor performance stemmed from these delays and a shift in market focus to semiconductor stocks. The current rise in shipbuilding stocks is also attributed to a rotation into value stocks in the US market, driven by interest rate movements, attracting institutional investors like pension funds who typically invest in asset-rich companies. This trend also benefits defense stocks like Hyundai Rotem and LIG Nex1. While not a full-blown surge, it's seen as a bottoming process for undervalued sectors. Hanwha Ocean is recommended as a top pick for short-term investors due to the upcoming Canadian submarine project and potential connection to the Philly Shipyard, despite HD Hyundai Heavy Industries being a safer long-term option.
Naver's short-term stock performance is expected to be challenging despite strong company narratives around Naver Cloud and cooperation with Nvidia. The stock price likely peaked in the short term, and revisiting 300,000 won will be difficult. While long-term investors (1-3 years) might not see significant changes, short-term gains from recent events like Jensen Huang's visit were temporary. Unlike companies that showed immediate numerical improvements post-Jensen Huang's visit (e.g., Doosan, LG Electronics), Naver's software-oriented nature means its stock reaction was over-optimistic. The speaker predicts a return to a stagnant period for Naver's stock.
SK E&S's recent stock surge is primarily due to divestiture rumors rather than its core business. The company, an SFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) manufacturer within the Bloom Energy value chain, has SK Discovery as a major shareholder (36.9%) looking to divest its stake. Additionally, private equity funds (Hanen N코s) hold about 40%, indicating a high likelihood of a sale. This constant potential for divestiture creates high stock volatility. While March also saw a surge due to a combination of divestiture rumors and Bloom Energy-related news, the stock's unpredictable nature makes it unsuitable for value-based investment, rather it's driven by speculative events.
SpaceX's IPO, with an oversubscription of 3.5 times, has raised concerns about capital drain from the Korean market. The IPO features approximately 7.5 million new shares, valuing the company at over 1.8 trillion USD. Some speculate that the recent corrections in US tech stocks (like Apple) are partly due to funds being reallocated to SpaceX. This is considered a supply-demand event. SpaceX's entry will impact indices like the Nasdaq 100, where it will be included around July 15th, potentially leading to adjustments within existing ETFs. While new listings of this magnitude can cause market volatility, especially for tech stocks, the market has likely already factored this in, explaining recent fluctuations in US equity markets.
For an investment of 10 million won, the speaker strongly recommends investing in only two stocks: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This strategy is based on the expectation that the market will continue to rally until the Q2 earnings announcements, specifically until July or August. Despite potential market instability in the second half of the year due to elections and lowered earnings expectations, there's a possibility of a final 'full rally.' The speaker believes the KOSPI index will surpass 2,900 points. Therefore, concentrating the investment in these two major stocks, rather than diversifying, is the optimal approach to capitalize on the anticipated market growth.