WHERE BULL MARKETS BEGIN, We've Reached It, Bitcoin Price Chart, XRP & Altcoin Market New Chapter

The crypto market is showing green across the board, with Bitcoin at $66,000 and XRP at $1.23. The broader stock market is also surging, recovering from recent 'fear narratives'. Historically, reaching 10.5 million coins in loss for Bitcoin has marked the end of bear markets, and this critical level has now been hit. This metric has always been a reliable indicator of a bottom, even through previous bear markets in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.

The market is now entering a phase where bullish divergences could be forming. While Bitcoin dipped, weakness is starting to fade. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a weekly timeframe shows capitulation levels. Similar to 2022, Bitcoin has swept a previous low by approximately $925, implying a bullish divergence. Combined with the 10.5 million coins in loss, the data strongly supports accumulation, despite lingering skepticism from some who compare the current situation to the FTX collapse.

A notable observation is that while Bitcoin and the total crypto market have swept their previous lows, certain altcoins (excluding the top 10) have not, similar to the FTX collapse. Coins like XRP, Ethereum, and Bitcoin have shown resilience with drawdowns around 75-77%, whereas many others, including Trump Coin, Stacks, Fetch AI, Injective, Filecoin, Vchain, and Jupiter, have fallen over 90% since 2024. This highlights a clear separation between assets with underlying bids and those without.

The speaker emphasizes that significant percentage gains in the crypto market are made by accumulating during these periods of low sentiment and market bottoms, not at all-time highs. The current milestone, marked by reaching 10.5 million coins in loss, is historically where bull markets begin. Despite the natural tendency for sentiment to be negative during such times, data-focused investing suggests this is the optimal time to buy, as was the case during the FTX collapse which symbolically marked the start of the last bull market.

Comparing the bear and bull cases from April 14th, the speaker notes a significant shift towards the bullish side. Previously neutral factors like the lack of bullish divergences and the final push for on-chain losses have now moved into the bull category. The bearish argument primarily relies on cyclical timing (waiting until September/October), but this argument neglects that the 10.5 million coins in loss threshold—which is a key component of their timing equation—has already been met. This strong bull case, combined with a surging stock market, suggests a potentially quicker recovery for crypto than in previous cycles, which often had broader market weakness.