Summary
Highlights
On December 8, 2024, Syria witnessed a historic transformation, ending decades of Assad family rule. The entry of 'Deterrence of Aggression' forces into Damascus marked a pivotal moment, signaling the end of one prolonged phase and the beginning of another. The speed of the regime's collapse surprised many, redefining power dynamics in Syria.
The military campaign, 'Deterrence of Aggression,' was a necessary response to the Syrian regime's continuous shelling of liberated areas. Its swift success, attributed to the unexpected collapse of regime forces, prevented external interventions that might have prolonged the conflict. The operation demonstrated the fragility of the regime and caught international diplomacy off guard.
International diplomacy was in shock over the rapid collapse of the Syrian regime. While Iran clung to the Astana process for a political solution, Turkey recognized the new realities on the ground, emphasizing a different approach. Russia, sensing the shift, began arranging for a post-Assad era, engaging with the emerging powers to secure its interests.
A key question arose regarding the disappearance of the Fourth Division, Republican Guard, and special forces—elite units usually responsible for Damascus's defense. These forces were largely deployed to the Aleppo countryside, where they were decimated, preventing them from defending the capital. Their uncoordinated collapse facilitated the swift entry into Damascus.
Following the liberation of Homs, a rapid race to Damascus commenced. Forces from the south, including the Eighth Corps supported by Russia, attempted to advance, but 'Deterrence of Aggression' forces, despite their longer journey, reached Damascus first. This swift advance and coordination ensured a relatively organized entry into the capital.
The first day after Assad's fall saw a critical meeting at the government headquarters between the last prime minister of the Assad era, Dr. Ghazi al-Jalali, and the head of the interim government. The meeting facilitated a peaceful transfer of power, with former ministers agreeing to cooperate and maintain state institutions.
Images from the People's Palace showed crowds entering formerly restricted areas, symbolizing the end of the old regime. Commander Ahmed al-Shara's subsequent visit to the Umayyad Mosque held significant symbolism, marking a moment of humility and reinforcing the restoration of stability in Damascus. This was not just a military victory but a symbolic return to the people.
Upon entering Damascus, the immediate priority was to prevent chaos and looting. Orders were issued to military and security forces to secure institutions and prevent civilian harassment. There was a strong emphasis on maintaining infrastructure and avoiding a reprisal-driven approach, signaling a new era of governance.
Following the fall of Damascus, operations extended to the Syrian coast to secure the area and prevent any re-grouping of regime loyalists. Simultaneously, Israel launched extensive airstrikes, targeting military installations and defense systems, capitalizing on the temporary power vacuum and challenging long-standing agreements.
Israel reacted with an unprecedented wave of over 300 airstrikes across Syria, targeting critical military infrastructure. This aggressive move was seen as an exploitation of the chaos and a redefinition of the security landscape, particularly in the Golan Heights, where Israeli forces expanded their control.
The success of the 'Deterrence of Aggression' operation was underpinned by years of covert intelligence gathering and cyber warfare. Special units had infiltrated regime institutions, collecting vital information and even compromising internal communications, which proved crucial during the rapid advance.
The fall of the Assad regime brought a feeling of liberation to many Syrians, envisioning a return to their homeland. Internationally, there was a tentative shift, with many countries engaging with the new Syrian leadership, recognizing the need for stability and addressing issues like migration, drug trafficking, and geopolitical challenges.
Diplomatic engagements underscored a new era, with foreign representatives meeting the new Syrian leadership to convey international expectations and offer support for stability and reconstruction. Efforts were made to alleviate military presence in urban areas, symbolizing a return to civilian life and prioritizing essential services.
The swift 11-day campaign concluded decades of suffering and oppression in Syria. Despite deep wounds and painful memories, the spirit of life and freedom prevailed. The public's joyous reaction served as a powerful message to the world, affirming their liberation and the dawn of a new era of peace and dignity.