Summary
Highlights
The market initially showed relief after Trump postponed his ultimatum on Iranian power plants to April 6th. However, this relief is temporary as the core issue of blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Prolonged uncertainty is detrimental, especially for Asian economies, which cannot wait until Easter. The market is now questioning the effectiveness of Trump's diplomatic strategies, fearing that a protracted conflict could lead to further market instability rather than relief.
The speaker advises observing Total Energies, which remains bullish above 72 euros, but warns of increased volatility. Chinese stocks, particularly consumer discretionary and spirits like JD.com, are showing signs of turning around after significant capitulation. In the software sector, despite fears of AI disruption, many companies like SAP are reaching critical support levels, hinting at potential M&A activity driven by companies seeking to deploy cash amidst inflation fears.
Chemical and consumer staple sectors, often resistant to initial shocks, are demonstrating resilience. Companies like Arkema are forming strong bottoming patterns, indicating potential entry points for long-term investors. Carrefour also shows a well-constructed uptrend, offering defensive qualities against recessionary fears. However, if markets don't find relief, even these defensive stocks could face pressure, signaling a broader market downturn.
Major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta are retracing to significant support zones, potentially attracting buyers for technical bounces. Microsoft, down 35% from its highs, is retesting 2025 tariff-era gaps. Meta, despite recent legal setbacks, is also at crucial support levels. The banking sector, represented by Credit Agricole, is nearing a key support area. Its ability to rebound will indicate whether the market focuses on immediate geopolitical tensions or shifts to deeper concerns about credit access and massive post-COVID debt, which could trigger a much larger market capitulation.