Summary
Highlights
Budapest, the capital of Hungary, is set to host the anticipated summit between Trump and Putin. Hungary has withdrawn from the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and maintains warm relations with Russia. However, to avoid Ukrainian airspace, Putin's plane would need to cross the airspace of an EU member state that is still part of the Rome Statute, making them legally bound by the arrest warrant against Putin. Poland has explicitly threatened to force Putin's plane to land, with its foreign minister stating he cannot guarantee a Polish court would not order the plane to land for his extradition to the ICC. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded by accusing Poland of preparing to commit acts of terrorism.
Given Poland's threats, this route is likely excluded. Three other routes remain for Putin's plane: 1. From Russia over the Black Sea, through Turkey (safe passage due to good relations), then Bulgaria, and finally to Hungary. Bulgaria, though a member of the ICC, might allow passage, as could Serbia, which has good ties with Russia. 2. If Bulgaria or Serbia refuse, Putin's plane would have to go via the Black Sea to Romania and then to Hungary. However, Romania has not declared its stance and is typically more loyal to Europeans and NATO, making this route uncertain. 3. The longest but least risky route involves the Black Sea, then Turkey to the Mediterranean, around Greece towards Albania, then Serbia, both outside the EU, facilitating passage, and finally to Hungary.
Many have reacted to the exchange between Russia and Poland. Some believe no country would dare stop Putin's plane, while others argue any country has the right to intercept an unauthorized flight. Remarks suggest that if Putin flies over Poland, he could legally be arrested, and that Russia's actions don't align with international law. Concerns about a world war are raised, noting Poland's historical role in WWII and its NATO membership, implying an attack on Poland would involve NATO directly.
Amid escalating tensions and American media reports about the potential suspension of the Budapest summit, a journalist asked President Trump whether he had canceled or postponed his meeting with Putin. Trump replied that he would not hold a fruitless meeting or waste time and that they would see what happens. He mentioned developments on the Russia-Ukraine front and stated that an announcement would be made in the coming days regarding their plans to find a solution.